US x Iran permanent peace dealJune 7
ResolvedOutcome: No$19.1Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
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25 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Iran signals convergence of views with US, says gaps remain
Al-Hadath sources: Iran confirmed that it will abide by the memorandum of understanding regarding the non-development of nuclear weapons. Iran proposed two tracks for negotiations, beginning with a declaration ending the war and the embargo. Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and temporarily waiving the fees. Iran offered to suspend uranium enrichment above 3.6% for 10 years. Iran offered to dilute uranium enriched above 20% domestically. Iran demanded the complete lifting of sanctions in exchange for its nuclear commitments. Iran demanded the release of its frozen assets before the nuclear negotiations. Al-Hadath Channel
There are still issues to be discussed via mediator - spokesperson Iran
Al Arabiya sources: • Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and temporarily waiving fees. • Iran offered to suspend uranium enrichment above 3.6% for 10 years. • Iran offered to dilute uranium enriched above 20% domestically. • Iran affirmed its commitment to not developing nuclear weapons in the text of the Memorandum of Understanding. • Iran demanded the preservation of limited enrichment rights in any agreement. • Iran demanded the complete lifting of sanctions in exchange for its nuclear commitments. • Iran demanded the release of its frozen assets before the nuclear negotiations.
IRAN SAYS ENDING US NAVAL BLOCKADE PART OF FRAMEWORK WITH US ...
An Islamic Republic official announced on Saturday, June 2, in an interview with Al Jazeera that Tehran has agreed to a memorandum of understanding with Pakistani mediation and is now awaiting a response from the United States. According to the official, the provisions of the memorandum include ending the war, completely lifting the naval blockade, opening the Strait of Hormuz, and withdrawing American forces from the war zone. He clarified that due to the complexity of the nuclear issue and the need for more time, the memorandum does not include nuclear issues; however, after 30 days of the implementation of the agreement, the doors to nuclear negotiations will be opened. The informed source also noted that the Pakistani army commander was supposed to announce the memorandum of understanding in Tehran, but he left Iran to coordinate with Washington. Emphasizing the essential role of the Qatari government in drafting this draft, he added that Iran will not cede any concessions beyond what is stated in this memorandum.
@VahidOOnLine @VahidOnline
Iran demands full lifting of sanctions in exchange for its nuclear commitments
Event sources: Iran proposed two negotiation tracks, beginning with a declaration to end the war and the blockade.
IRAN SAYS NUCLEAR ISSUE NOT PART OF INITIAL FRAMEWORK WITH US ...
IRAN SAYS NUCLEAR ISSUE NOT PART OF INITIAL FRAMEWORK WITH US
ALERT: Iran says nuclear issue not part of initial framework with US
Al Arabiya reported that the Islamic Republic has submitted two proposals to the Pakistani mediator, according to which, in exchange for compensation from the United States, it would open the Strait of Hormuz and discuss the issue of sanctions and frozen assets before signing any agreement. US President Donald Trump had previously said that he was not willing to pay compensation to Tehran.
@VahidOOnLine @VahidOnline
ALERT: Iran signals convergence of views with US, says gaps remain: state TV
Iran warns US of "devastating" response – Rubio optimistic about possible agreement
Trump is approaching a decision point: either a principles-based agreement that enables the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the siege, ending the war, and postponing nuclear negotiations for a month or a return to war, which may achieve certain tactical goals but is highly unlikely to shift the current Iranian leadership from its position. • • Every threat and every reference by Trump to the destruction of Iran only reinforces the conviction in Tehran that discussing the nuclear issue before receiving hard guarantees on ending the war and reopening Hormuz would be a strategic mistake. • • In the past, the Iranian leadership’s red line centered on limits to the nuclear program. Today, after what Iran views as proof of resilience during the war, the priority has changed: first stabilize the Strait of Hormuz and secure meaningful economic guarantees. Only then would Tehran even consider entering serious nuclear talks. • • This is the outcome of a failed war strategy: instead of forcing concessions on the nuclear file, the conflict elevated Iran’s leverage and pushed the nuclear issue further down the negotiating agenda. • • #IranWar
Reading this, significant gaps with US proposal. Iran wants: • - Assets unfrozen sooner • - Far more specifics on nuclear, incl right to keep enriching. •
The Iranian president, during his meeting with the Pakistani army chief: Our experience negotiating with the Americans compels us to exercise the utmost precision and caution. The United States will not emerge victorious; it is the countries of the region and the world that will suffer heavy losses. #AlMayadeen
While negotiations with Iran remain uncertain, Donald Trump posts a map of Iran colored with the United States
NOReuters98%match80¢+25%
Rpt- This is a Long Process and U.S. ‘Hostility’ Towards Iran is Long-Term So One Cannot Expect Getting to a Result in a Short Time - Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson
"The United States of the Middle East?" Donald Trump posted a map on Truth Social depicting Iran in the colors of the American flag. Earlier, CBS News learned that the US administration is developing a scenario for new military strikes against Iran, but no final decision has been made, according to sources familiar with the planning. RBK Channel on Max
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Al Arabiya reported that the Islamic Republic has presented two proposals to the Pakistani mediator, according to which, in exchange for compensation from the United States, it would open the Strait of Hormuz and discuss the issue of sanctions and frozen assets before signing any agreement. US President Donald Trump had previously said that he was not willing to pay compensation to Tehran.
Iran’s Baghaei says dialogue with US ‘time-consuming’
Pezzekian added: The experience of negotiating with the United States obliges the Islamic Republic to observe utmost care in the process of negotiations.
A member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Parliament stated: "There is a feeling that we are close to reaching an agreement, but there are challenges." Both the Iranian and Pakistani sides agreed that these challenges and the resulting ambiguity stem from the United States.
Iran warns the US of a "devastating" response
Where does the news lean?
8YES62NO36neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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