US x Iran permanent peace dealJune 15

ResolvedOutcome: YesVol$177.4MResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

47 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOaljadeednews99%match75¢-100%
Financial Times: US and Iran close to extending ceasefire for 60 days
NOalmayadeenlive99%match75¢-100%
Financial Times, citing mediators: US and Iran close to extending ceasefire for 60 days
NOyuto_headline99%match75¢-100%
*US and Iran close to agree on 60-day ceasefire extension - sources = FT *US, IRAN CLOSE TO EXTENDING CEASEFIRE BY 60 DAYS, FT REPORTS
NOAl Arabiya Reporter99%match75¢-100%
Mediators believe they are closing in on a deal to extend the US ceasefire with Iran by 60 days and lay the framework for discussions on Tehran’s nuclear program: FT
NOmarketnews_feed99%match75¢-100%
UNITED STATES, IRAN ARE CLOSE TO EXTENDING THE CEASEFIRE FOR 60 DAYS ...
NOAsharq99%match75¢-100%
Financial Times, citing mediators: US and Iran close to extending ceasefire for 60 days
NOisraelhayomheb99%match75¢-100%
Financial Times report: US and Iran close to agreement to extend ceasefire by another two months
NOfaytuksnetwork99%match75¢-100%
U.S. and Iranian negotiators are close to extending their ceasefire by 60 days under a mediated deal that would include a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, talks on Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, eased restrictions on Iranian ports, sanctions relief and the phased unfreezing of Tehran’s overseas assets, the Financial Times reports.
NOSky News Arabia99%match75¢-100%
Financial Times: US and Iran close to extending ceasefire for 60 days
NOstaunovo99%match75¢-100%
There are still issues to be discussed via mediator - spokesperson Iran
NOfirstsquawk99%match75¢-100%
Iran demands full lifting of sanctions in exchange for its nuclear commitments
NOAl Jazeera99%match75¢-100%
The spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry: The memorandum of understanding includes 14 points to end the war, and the details will be discussed within 30 to 60 days.
NOKan Reporter99%match75¢-100%
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: We are in the final stages of formulating a memorandum of understanding that will include the main issues of ending the war. In response to the question of how close Iran and the US are to a deal, the Foreign Ministry Spokesperson replied: "We could perhaps say that we are very far and very close. Because on the one hand, we have seen contradictory statements from the US, they have changed their minds many times and various senior officials have expressed contradictory positions. From this angle, we cannot be sure that this approach will change. On the other hand, after several weeks of talks between the parties, we can see a trend of approaching an agreement - approaching, not in the sense that we and the US will reach a mutual understanding on issues of such high importance, but in the sense that we will reach a solution that is agreed upon by both sides based on a number of parameters. Our approach was to write a draft of a memorandum of understanding or an agreement, similar to the 14-point framework agreement. This memorandum of understanding contains the most critical issues necessary to end the forced war, including issues of fundamental importance to us. Then, within a reasonable time frame of 30 to 60 days, the details will be negotiated and will ultimately lead to a final agreement. We are currently in the final stages of formulating the memorandum of understanding. As I said, the issues being discussed at this stage generally focus on a complete end to the war and issues related to the thawing of Iran's frozen assets. These are the main points that will be raised in the memorandum of understanding." Reported by the Iranian Mehr News Agency
NOKan Reporters99%match75¢-100%
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: We are in the final stages of formulating a memorandum of understanding that will include the main issues of ending the war In response to the question of how close Iran and the US are to a deal, the Foreign Ministry Spokesperson replied: "We could perhaps say that we are very far and very close. Because on the one hand, we have seen contradictory statements from the US, they have changed their minds many times and various senior officials have expressed contradictory positions. From this angle, we cannot be sure that this approach will change. On the other hand, after several weeks of talks between the parties, we can see a trend of approaching an agreement - approaching, not in the sense that we and the US will reach a mutual understanding on issues of such high importance, but in the sense that we will reach a solution that is agreed upon by both sides based on a number of parameters. Our approach was to write a draft of a memorandum of understanding or an agreement, similar to the 14-point framework agreement. This memorandum of understanding contains the most critical issues necessary to end the forced war, including issues of fundamental importance to us. Then, within a reasonable time frame of 30 to 60 days, the details will be negotiated and will ultimately lead to a final agreement. We are currently in the final stages of formulating the memorandum of understanding. As I said, the issues being discussed at this stage generally focus on a complete end to the war and issues related to the thawing of Iran's frozen assets. These are the main points that will be raised in the memorandum of understanding." Reported by the Iranian Mehr News Agency
NOReuters98%match75¢-100%
Rpt- This is a Long Process and U.S. ‘Hostility’ Towards Iran is Long-Term So One Cannot Expect Getting to a Result in a Short Time - Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson
NOmayadeenenglish99%match75¢-100%
The spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, Esmaeil Baqaei, said that Tehran remains at a delicate stage in its talks with the United States, describing the situation as “very far and very close” to an agreement. • • The spokesperson said the visit of the Pakistani army commander was aimed at exchanging messages between Iran and the United States, and that recent discussions focused on areas where disagreements still persist. • • He added that, due to the contradictory positions of the United States, it cannot be said that the process is clearly moving in a new direction. He noted that views have become closer, but not in a way that would indicate an agreement; rather, only to the extent that a possible solution may be discussed. • • He also said that this is a long process, stressing that the US hostility toward Iran is long-term, and therefore it is unrealistic to expect results in a short period of time. • • On regional issues, the spokesperson said that the Strait of Hormuz has nothing to do with the United States, describing it as a matter between Iran and the coastal states of the Strait. • • He further noted that the tendency over the past week has been toward a reduction in disagreements, while adding that it remains necessary to wait and see how developments unfold in the coming days. • • #Iran #WarOnIran #StraitOfHormuz #UnitedStates #Ceasefire #AlMayadeen
NOaljazeera.com99%match73¢-100%
Iran’s Baghaei says dialogue with US ‘time-consuming’
NOwelt.de99%match73¢-100%
Iran warns the US of a "devastating" response
NOfaytuksnetwork99%match81¢-100%
The U.S. and Iran aren't having direct negotiations on the substance of the agreement, but are engaged in indirect talks to try and develop consensus around what these negotiations will look like - Axios
NOAxios Reporter99%match81¢-100%
The White House believes that the updated proposal that Iran submitted to the United States on Sunday night does not constitute a significant improvement and is not sufficient to reach an agreement, a senior American official and a source familiar with the details told me. Why is this important: American officials say that President Trump wants an agreement that will end the war, but is considering renewing it due to the fact that Iran has rejected many of his demands and refuses to make significant concessions regarding its nuclear program. Trump is expected to convene his senior national security team in the White House Situation Room on Tuesday to discuss military options, two senior American officials said. The American official said that if Iran does not change its position, the United States will be forced to continue negotiations "with bombs." Trump told me in a phone call on Sunday, before the US accepted the updated Iranian proposal, that “the clock is ticking,” and if Iran doesn’t show flexibility, “they’re going to hit much harder.” The details: The American official told me that Iran's counter-proposal, conveyed to the United States on Sunday night through Pakistani mediators, includes only symbolic improvements over the previous version. The new proposal includes more wording regarding Iran's commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, but without detailed commitments regarding the suspension of uranium enrichment or the transfer of its highly enriched uranium stockpile - the two main demands of President Trump. While Iranian state media reported that the US had agreed to suspend some oil sanctions on Iran during the negotiations, the US official said that there would be no "free" sanctions relief without reciprocal concessions from Iran. What they say: "We really haven't made much progress. We are at a very serious point today. The pressure is on Iran. It needs to respond in the right way," said the American official. "It's time for the Iranians to throw some candy on the table. We need a real, serious, detailed conversation [about the nuclear program]. If that doesn't happen, we'll have the conversation with bombs, and it's a shame." between the lines: The American official said that the US and Iran are not currently holding direct negotiations on the content of the agreement, but are holding indirect talks in an attempt to reach an agreement on how the negotiations will be conducted. The American official claimed that the very fact that Iran submitted a new counter-proposal, despite the very limited changes, indicates that the Iranians fear further American military action. The Iranians have long claimed that it is Trump who is desperate to reach an agreement, and that time is working in their favor.
NON12 Reporter99%match81¢-100%
Axios reports: US sees new Iran offer as 'insufficient for a deal'
NON12 Reporter99%match81¢-100%
US sees new Iran offer as 'insufficient for deal' (Axios)
NObabakvahdad99%match81¢-100%
Tasnim, citing a source close to the Iranian negotiating team, says that despite some changes in the latest American draft, the core disagreements remain unresolved due to what Tehran describes as “excessive demands” and a lack of realism from Washington. • • - According to the report, Iran remains extremely serious about obtaining compensation from the U.S. for the military attacks against Iran. While the Americans are reportedly discussing something described as a “development and reconstruction fund,” there is still a major gap over the figures and broader terms. • • - The same source also says Washington is still trying to link “ending the war” to the nuclear file, something Tehran considers unacceptable and illogical. Iran reportedly insists there will be no scenario in which a ceasefire or end of hostilities comes in exchange for nuclear concessions. • • - This once again suggests that the main deadlock may not be only about the nuclear issue itself, but about sequencing, war-related compensation, and the broader post-war regional framework. • • #Iran #IranWar
NOjavierblas99%match81¢-100%
According to @Axios, Iran has given Washington an updated proposal for a deal to end the war, but the White House believes it is not a meaningful improvement and is insufficient for a deal.
NOAl Jazeera98%match81¢-100%
Axios, citing a senior US official: We will have to continue negotiations through bombs if #Iran does not change its position.
NOfaytuksnetwork99%match81¢-100%
The US has rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, with a senior official saying that it “risks war resumption.” - Axios
NOiranintlbrk99%match81¢-100%
Axios reported, citing a senior US official and a source familiar with the matter, that Tehran has made a new proposal for a deal to end the war, but the White House does not consider the proposal to be meaningful progress and has not assessed it as sufficient to reach an agreement.
NOAl Araby99%match81¢-100%
Axios, citing a US official: Iran has presented an updated proposal to end the war, but the White House believes it is insufficient to reach an agreement.
NOalarabytv99%match81¢-100%
#Breaking | Axios, citing a US official: Iran has presented an updated proposal to end the war, but the White House believes it is insufficient to reach an agreement.
NOkobeissiletter99%match81¢-100%
BREAKING: Iran has sent an updated proposal for a deal to end the war, but the White House believes it is "insufficient for a deal," per Axios. • • President Trump is now expected to convene his top national security team in the Situation Room on Tuesday to discuss military options. • • A senior US official said that if Iran will not shift its position, the US will have to continue negotiations "through bombs." • • Trump is reportedly considering resuming the Iran War due to Iran's rejection of many of his demands. • • Peace talks continue to show little progress.
NOiranintl_en99%match81¢-100%
Iran's updated proposal for a deal to end the war is not a meaningful improvement and is insufficient for a deal, Axios reported citing a senior US official and a source briefed on the issue. • • The US will have to continue the negotiations "through bombs" if Iran won't shift its position, the US official was quoted as saying. •
NOosinttechnical99%match81¢-100%
The US has rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, with a senior official saying that it “risks war resumption.” -Axios
NONews99%match81¢-100%
The White House considers Iran's new proposal for a settlement insufficient for a deal with the United States - AXIOS, CITING SOURCES
NOmarketnews_feed99%match81¢-100%
*IRAN HAS GIVEN AN UPDATED PROPOSAL FOR A DEAL: AXIOS • • *WHITE HOUSE BELIEVES IRAN UPDATE NOT MEANINGFUL: AXIOS ...
NOmarketnews_feed99%match81¢-100%
A SENIOR US OFFICIAL TOLD AXIOS THAT IRAN’S UPDATED PROPOSAL FOR ENDING THE CONFLICT IS NOT A MEANINGFUL IMPROVEMENT AND REMAINS INSUFFICIENT FOR A DEAL. • • WASHINGTON SAID TRUMP STILL PREFERS A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT BUT IS WEIGHING MILITARY OPTIONS AS TEHRAN CONTINUES TO RESIST KEY DEMANDS ON ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM. • • OFFICIALS WARNED THAT IF NO PROGRESS IS MADE, TALKS COULD SHIFT TOWARD ESCALATION, WITH INTERNAL DISCUSSIONS ON NEXT STEPS EXPECTED AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL. • • SENIOR US OFFICIAL: IRAN'S NEW OFFER IS INSUFFICIENT, AND RISKS A WAR RESUMPTION - AXIOS. - FINANCIALJUICE ...
NOmarketnews_feed99%match81¢-100%
A SENIOR U.S. OFFICIAL TOLD AXIOS THAT IRAN’S UPDATED PROPOSAL FOR ENDING THE CONFLICT IS NOT A MEANINGFUL IMPROVEMENT AND REMAINS INSUFFICIENT FOR A DEAL. - AXIOS ...
NOfirstsquawk99%match81¢-100%
A SENIOR U.S. OFFICIAL TOLD AXIOS THAT IRAN’S UPDATED PROPOSAL FOR ENDING THE CONFLICT IS NOT A MEANINGFUL IMPROVEMENT AND REMAINS INSUFFICIENT FOR A DEAL. - AXIOS
NOjasonmbrodsky99%match81¢-100%
#Iran has given an updated proposal for a deal to end the war, but the White House believes it is not a meaningful improvement and is insufficient for a deal, a senior U.S. official and a source briefed on the issue told Axios. • •
NOzerohedge99%match81¢-100%
WHITE HOUSE BELIEVES IRAN'S UPDATED PROPOSAL FOR A DEAL TO END THE WAR IS NOT A MEANINGFUL IMPROVEMENT AND IS INSUFFICIENT FOR A DEAL: SENIOR US OFFICIAL TELLS AXIOS
NOmarketnews_feed99%match81¢-100%
US SAYS IRAN DEAL OFFER STILL INSUFFICIENT, WAR TALKS RISK ESCALATION • • A SENIOR U.S. OFFICIAL TOLD AXIOS THAT IRAN’S UPDATED PROPOSAL FOR ENDING THE CONFLICT IS NOT A MEANINGFUL IMPROVEMENT AND REMAINS INSUFFICIENT FOR A DEAL. • • WASHINGTON SAID PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP STILL PREFERS A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT BUT IS WEIGHING MILITARY OPTIONS AS TEHRAN CONTINUES TO RESIST KEY DEMANDS ON ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM. • • OFFICIALS WARNED THAT IF NO PROGRESS IS MADE, TALKS COULD SHIFT TOWARD ESCALATION, WITH INTERNAL DISCUSSIONS ON NEXT STEPS EXPECTED AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL. ...
NOWalter Bloomberg99%match81¢-100%
US SAYS IRAN DEAL OFFER STILL INSUFFICIENT, WAR TALKS RISK ESCALATION • • A senior U.S. official told Axios that Iran’s updated proposal for ending the conflict is not a meaningful improvement and remains insufficient for a deal. • • Washington said President Donald Trump still prefers a negotiated settlement but is weighing military options as Tehran continues to resist key demands on its nuclear program. • • Officials warned that if no progress is made, talks could shift toward escalation, with internal discussions on next steps expected at the highest level.
NOaxios99%match81¢-100%
NEW: Iran has given an updated proposal for a deal to end the war, but the White House believes it is not a meaningful improvement and is insufficient for a deal, sources tell Axios.
NON13/GLZ Reporters99%match81¢-100%
In the wake of reports of progress in the negotiations between Iran and the US - pay attention to what a senior Iranian source told Reuters a short time ago: - Iran's revised proposal calls for a permanent end to the war, the lifting of sanctions, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (Note: The Iranian demand to collect taxes from the Strait of Hormuz is not mentioned here, it is possible that this is a point on which they agree to some compromise, especially in light of the position expressed by Chinese President Xi last week during Trump's visit - that the Strait of Hormuz should be open and free) - The US has shown flexibility in the discussions, including on the nuclear issue. Iran will discuss its nuclear program only at a later stage (note: so Iran may have compromised on Hormuz, but it still does not agree to discuss the main bone of contention, which is the nuclear issue, and this is still the main obstacle to the agreement). - Washington has so far agreed to unfreeze only 25% of Iranian assets frozen abroad, Tehran demands the release of all of them. (Another major point of contention)
NOIranian Journalist99%match81¢-100%
The Tasnim news agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard Corps, wrote on Monday, May 19, quoting "a source close to the Islamic Republic's negotiating team" that Tehran "has delivered its latest text in 14 paragraphs to a Pakistani mediator, and the Pakistani mediator is presenting it to the Americans." An hour before the news was published, Reuters reported, citing a Pakistani official, that Islamabad had delivered the Islamic Republic of Iran's revised proposal to Washington on Sunday night. @VahidOOnLine On Monday, May 19, Al-Arabiya News Agency reported, based on "leaked details" of the latest version of Iran's proposal to the United States, a set of new demands and proposals from Tehran that focus on a ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz, and the nuclear file. According to the report, Iran has called for a long-term, multi-stage ceasefire and has also requested that the Strait of Hormuz be reopened gradually and with security guarantees. Based on this information, Tehran has agreed to a long-term freeze on nuclear activities instead of completely dismantling its nuclear program. It has also been proposed that the transfer of enriched uranium stocks be conditional to Russia instead of the United States. Al Arabiya also reported that Iran has backed down from demanding compensation, but has instead demanded economic facilities and concessions. According to the report, Iran also wants to receive several international guarantees for any potential agreement and is trying to separate the maritime file and the Strait of Hormuz issue from the complexities related to the nuclear negotiations. Another part of the report states that Tehran has called for Pakistan and Oman to play a role in managing any potential tension or friction in the Strait of Hormuz, and also emphasizes the use of political language and frameworks that will enable "preserving the political face of the Islamic Republic." @VahidOOnLine @VahidOnline
NOhazem_kallass99%match81¢-100%
US President Donald Trump on Iran: They are eager to sign an agreement Iran talks about the agreement and then presents a document that has no relation to any of its terms. Iranians are crying out from the effects of the war
NOmarketnews_feed99%match81¢-100%
US SAYS TRUMP LOSING PATIENCE IN IRAN TALKS • • A US SOURCE TOLD AL JAZEERA THAT IRAN HAS “DAYS, NOT WEEKS” TO PRESENT A VIABLE PROPOSAL TO BREAK THE DEADLOCK IN TALKS WITH DONALD TRUMP. • • THE SOURCE ADDED THAT TRUMP’S PATIENCE IS WEARING THIN AS NEGOTIATIONS WITH TEHRAN SHOW LITTLE PROGRESS. ...
NOosint61399%match81¢-100%
Iran’s revised proposal reportedly calls for a permanent end to the war, full sanctions relief, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. • • Iran’s nuclear program would be addressed only in later stages of the negotiations. • • In short, nothing changed. President Trump will not be happy.

Where does the news lean?

23YES212NO72neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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