US x Iran permanent peace dealJuly 31
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$12.7Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
44 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Financial Times: US and Iran close to extending ceasefire for 60 days
Financial Times report: US and Iran close to agreement on extending ceasefire for another 60 days
Financial Times, citing mediators: US and Iran close to extending ceasefire for 60 days
*US and Iran close to agree on 60-day ceasefire extension - sources = FT *US, IRAN CLOSE TO EXTENDING CEASEFIRE BY 60 DAYS, FT REPORTS
Mediators believe they are closing in on a deal to extend the US ceasefire with Iran by 60 days and lay the framework for discussions on Tehran’s nuclear program: FT
UNITED STATES, IRAN ARE CLOSE TO EXTENDING THE CEASEFIRE FOR 60 DAYS ...
United States, Iran are close to extending the ceasefire for 60 days
Financial Times, citing mediators: US and Iran close to extending ceasefire for 60 days
Financial Times report: US and Iran close to agreement to extend ceasefire by another two months
Spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: We are very far and very close to an agreement / The Strait of Hormuz has nothing to do with the US Beqaei: The purpose of the Pakistani army commander's visit was to exchange messages between Iran and the US. Our focus at this stage is on ending the imposed war. The sides' views have been exchanged several times on various clauses. The issues on which there were differences of opinion were discussed. With the contradictory positions of the US, we cannot say that this trend will change. The views have come closer, but not in the sense of agreement, but rather that we can reach a solution. The Strait of Hormuz has nothing to do with America, and this is an issue between us and the coastal countries. We will not discuss the nuclear issue in detail at this stage. We know that the nuclear issue was the pretext for two wars of aggression against Iran. We have the experience of being invaded twice during the nuclear negotiations. We responsibly and wisely decided to focus the negotiations on ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon. Whether we enter the nuclear issue in 30 days or 60 days is a matter for later. sepahnews.ir | Sepah News
@sepahnewsir403
IRAN SAYS FORCE FULLY RESTORED • • The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament and chief negotiator for Tehran, Ghalibaf, met with the commander-in-chief of the Pakistani army. He stated that Iran had restored its combat capabilities during the ceasefire period and would under no circumstances compromise on the rights of the nation. • • A representative of Iran’s Foreign Ministry said that a trend toward reducing disagreements between Iran and the United States had emerged this week. • • He stressed that US aggression is of a long-term nature, and therefore no quick results should be expected. • • He added that the Strait of Hormuz is not a matter for the United States but for Iran and its regional neighbors. • • He also described US actions as “piracy and blockade,” calling them a major problem. In addition, he said that a ceasefire in Lebanon is a necessary and non-negotiable condition.
The spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry: The memorandum of understanding includes 14 points to end the war, and the details will be discussed within 30 to 60 days.
The spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, Esmaeil Baqaei, said that Tehran remains at a delicate stage in its talks with the United States, describing the situation as “very far and very close” to an agreement. • • The spokesperson said the visit of the Pakistani army commander was aimed at exchanging messages between Iran and the United States, and that recent discussions focused on areas where disagreements still persist. • • He added that, due to the contradictory positions of the United States, it cannot be said that the process is clearly moving in a new direction. He noted that views have become closer, but not in a way that would indicate an agreement; rather, only to the extent that a possible solution may be discussed. • • He also said that this is a long process, stressing that the US hostility toward Iran is long-term, and therefore it is unrealistic to expect results in a short period of time. • • On regional issues, the spokesperson said that the Strait of Hormuz has nothing to do with the United States, describing it as a matter between Iran and the coastal states of the Strait. • • He further noted that the tendency over the past week has been toward a reduction in disagreements, while adding that it remains necessary to wait and see how developments unfold in the coming days. • • #Iran #WarOnIran #StraitOfHormuz #UnitedStates #Ceasefire #AlMayadeen
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: We are very far and very close to an agreement Begaei: The purpose of the Pakistani army commander's visit was to exchange messages between Iran and the United States. Our focus at this stage is on ending the imposed war. The sides' views have been exchanged several times on various clauses. The issues on which there were differences of opinion were discussed.. With America's contradictory positions, we cannot say that this trend will change. The views have become closer, but not in the sense of agreement, but rather that we can reach a solution. @iribnews
Iran warns the US of a "devastating" response
The U.S. and Iran aren't having direct negotiations on the substance of the agreement, but are engaged in indirect talks to try and develop consensus around what these negotiations will look like - Axios
The White House believes that the updated proposal that Iran submitted to the United States on Sunday night does not constitute a significant improvement and is not sufficient to reach an agreement, a senior American official and a source familiar with the details told me. Why is this important: American officials say that President Trump wants an agreement that will end the war, but is considering renewing it due to the fact that Iran has rejected many of his demands and refuses to make significant concessions regarding its nuclear program. Trump is expected to convene his senior national security team in the White House Situation Room on Tuesday to discuss military options, two senior American officials said. The American official said that if Iran does not change its position, the United States will be forced to continue negotiations "with bombs." Trump told me in a phone call on Sunday, before the US accepted the updated Iranian proposal, that “the clock is ticking,” and if Iran doesn’t show flexibility, “they’re going to hit much harder.” The details: The American official told me that Iran's counter-proposal, conveyed to the United States on Sunday night through Pakistani mediators, includes only symbolic improvements over the previous version. The new proposal includes more wording regarding Iran's commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, but without detailed commitments regarding the suspension of uranium enrichment or the transfer of its highly enriched uranium stockpile - the two main demands of President Trump. While Iranian state media reported that the US had agreed to suspend some oil sanctions on Iran during the negotiations, the US official said that there would be no "free" sanctions relief without reciprocal concessions from Iran. What they say: "We really haven't made much progress. We are at a very serious point today. The pressure is on Iran. It needs to respond in the right way," said the American official. "It's time for the Iranians to throw some candy on the table. We need a real, serious, detailed conversation [about the nuclear program]. If that doesn't happen, we'll have the conversation with bombs, and it's a shame." between the lines: The American official said that the US and Iran are not currently holding direct negotiations on the content of the agreement, but are holding indirect talks in an attempt to reach an agreement on how the negotiations will be conducted. The American official claimed that the very fact that Iran submitted a new counter-proposal, despite the very limited changes, indicates that the Iranians fear further American military action. The Iranians have long claimed that it is Trump who is desperate to reach an agreement, and that time is working in their favor.
Tasnim, citing a source close to the Iranian negotiating team, says that despite some changes in the latest American draft, the core disagreements remain unresolved due to what Tehran describes as “excessive demands” and a lack of realism from Washington. • • - According to the report, Iran remains extremely serious about obtaining compensation from the U.S. for the military attacks against Iran. While the Americans are reportedly discussing something described as a “development and reconstruction fund,” there is still a major gap over the figures and broader terms. • • - The same source also says Washington is still trying to link “ending the war” to the nuclear file, something Tehran considers unacceptable and illogical. Iran reportedly insists there will be no scenario in which a ceasefire or end of hostilities comes in exchange for nuclear concessions. • • - This once again suggests that the main deadlock may not be only about the nuclear issue itself, but about sequencing, war-related compensation, and the broader post-war regional framework. • • #Iran #IranWar
According to @Axios, Iran has given Washington an updated proposal for a deal to end the war, but the White House believes it is not a meaningful improvement and is insufficient for a deal.
Axios, citing a senior US official: We will have to continue negotiations through bombs if #Iran does not change its position.
The US has rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, with a senior official saying that it “risks war resumption.” - Axios
Axios reported, citing a senior US official and a source familiar with the matter, that Tehran has made a new proposal for a deal to end the war, but the White House does not consider the proposal to be meaningful progress and has not assessed it as sufficient to reach an agreement.
Axios, citing a US official: Iran has presented an updated proposal to end the war, but the White House believes it is insufficient to reach an agreement.
BREAKING: Iran has sent an updated proposal for a deal to end the war, but the White House believes it is "insufficient for a deal," per Axios. • • President Trump is now expected to convene his top national security team in the Situation Room on Tuesday to discuss military options. • • A senior US official said that if Iran will not shift its position, the US will have to continue negotiations "through bombs." • • Trump is reportedly considering resuming the Iran War due to Iran's rejection of many of his demands. • • Peace talks continue to show little progress.
The US has rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, with a senior official saying that it “risks war resumption.” -Axios
NONews99%match62¢-100%
The White House considers Iran's new proposal for a settlement insufficient for a deal with the United States - AXIOS, CITING SOURCES
US REJECTS LATEST IRANIAN PEACE PROPOSAL AHEAD OF SITUATION ROOM MEETING ON TUESDAY
A SENIOR US OFFICIAL TOLD AXIOS THAT IRAN’S UPDATED PROPOSAL FOR ENDING THE CONFLICT IS NOT A MEANINGFUL IMPROVEMENT AND REMAINS INSUFFICIENT FOR A DEAL. • • WASHINGTON SAID TRUMP STILL PREFERS A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT BUT IS WEIGHING MILITARY OPTIONS AS TEHRAN CONTINUES TO RESIST KEY DEMANDS ON ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM. • • OFFICIALS WARNED THAT IF NO PROGRESS IS MADE, TALKS COULD SHIFT TOWARD ESCALATION, WITH INTERNAL DISCUSSIONS ON NEXT STEPS EXPECTED AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL. • • SENIOR US OFFICIAL: IRAN'S NEW OFFER IS INSUFFICIENT, AND RISKS A WAR RESUMPTION - AXIOS. - FINANCIALJUICE ...
A SENIOR U.S. OFFICIAL TOLD AXIOS THAT IRAN’S UPDATED PROPOSAL FOR ENDING THE CONFLICT IS NOT A MEANINGFUL IMPROVEMENT AND REMAINS INSUFFICIENT FOR A DEAL. - AXIOS ...
A SENIOR U.S. OFFICIAL TOLD AXIOS THAT IRAN’S UPDATED PROPOSAL FOR ENDING THE CONFLICT IS NOT A MEANINGFUL IMPROVEMENT AND REMAINS INSUFFICIENT FOR A DEAL. - AXIOS
#Iran has given an updated proposal for a deal to end the war, but the White House believes it is not a meaningful improvement and is insufficient for a deal, a senior U.S. official and a source briefed on the issue told Axios. • •
WHITE HOUSE BELIEVES IRAN'S UPDATED PROPOSAL FOR A DEAL TO END THE WAR IS NOT A MEANINGFUL IMPROVEMENT AND IS INSUFFICIENT FOR A DEAL: SENIOR US OFFICIAL TELLS AXIOS
US SAYS IRAN DEAL OFFER STILL INSUFFICIENT, WAR TALKS RISK ESCALATION • • A SENIOR U.S. OFFICIAL TOLD AXIOS THAT IRAN’S UPDATED PROPOSAL FOR ENDING THE CONFLICT IS NOT A MEANINGFUL IMPROVEMENT AND REMAINS INSUFFICIENT FOR A DEAL. • • WASHINGTON SAID PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP STILL PREFERS A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT BUT IS WEIGHING MILITARY OPTIONS AS TEHRAN CONTINUES TO RESIST KEY DEMANDS ON ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM. • • OFFICIALS WARNED THAT IF NO PROGRESS IS MADE, TALKS COULD SHIFT TOWARD ESCALATION, WITH INTERNAL DISCUSSIONS ON NEXT STEPS EXPECTED AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL. ...
US SAYS IRAN DEAL OFFER STILL INSUFFICIENT, WAR TALKS RISK ESCALATION • • A senior U.S. official told Axios that Iran’s updated proposal for ending the conflict is not a meaningful improvement and remains insufficient for a deal. • • Washington said President Donald Trump still prefers a negotiated settlement but is weighing military options as Tehran continues to resist key demands on its nuclear program. • • Officials warned that if no progress is made, talks could shift toward escalation, with internal discussions on next steps expected at the highest level.
NEW: Iran has given an updated proposal for a deal to end the war, but the White House believes it is not a meaningful improvement and is insufficient for a deal, sources tell Axios.
A source close to the negotiating team told Tasnim: Despite some changes in the new American text, fundamental differences stemming from the Americans' exaggeration and lack of realism remain. Iran's determination regarding the necessity of paying compensation by the Americans for the military aggression against Iran is very serious. However, despite the talk of something called the establishment of a Development and Reconstruction Fund, the Americans are far from meeting Iran's demands regarding its size and some other issues. The Americans are still trying to tie the end-of-war negotiations to the nuclear issue, which is illogical and Iran will not agree to. The Americans must understand that Iran will never agree to an end to the war in exchange for nuclear commitments.
In the wake of reports of progress in the negotiations between Iran and the US - pay attention to what a senior Iranian source told Reuters a short time ago: - Iran's revised proposal calls for a permanent end to the war, the lifting of sanctions, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (Note: The Iranian demand to collect taxes from the Strait of Hormuz is not mentioned here, it is possible that this is a point on which they agree to some compromise, especially in light of the position expressed by Chinese President Xi last week during Trump's visit - that the Strait of Hormuz should be open and free) - The US has shown flexibility in the discussions, including on the nuclear issue. Iran will discuss its nuclear program only at a later stage (note: so Iran may have compromised on Hormuz, but it still does not agree to discuss the main bone of contention, which is the nuclear issue, and this is still the main obstacle to the agreement). - Washington has so far agreed to unfreeze only 25% of Iranian assets frozen abroad, Tehran demands the release of all of them. (Another major point of contention)
Sapir Lipkin The Iranian source added: "The Americans' demands in the nuclear field are only political excuses and against the rights of the Iranian people. The Americans are still trying to tie the negotiations to end the war to the nuclear issue, which is illogical and Iran will not agree to this. The Americans should understand that Iran will not agree in any way to end the war in exchange for nuclear commitments."
US President Donald Trump on Iran: They are eager to sign an agreement Iran talks about the agreement and then presents a document that has no relation to any of its terms. Iranians are crying out from the effects of the war
Iran’s revised proposal to Washington calls for a permanent end to the war, sanctions relief, the release of all frozen Iranian funds and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while leaving nuclear talks for later stages, Reuters reported citing a senior Iranian source. • • The source said the US has so far agreed only to unfreeze 25% of Iran’s funds on a phased timetable but has shown flexibility over limits on Tehran’s nuclear work. •
Reuters reports that negotiations remain far apart, with Iranian officials saying the U.S. has offered only limited sanctions relief and modest movement on the nuclear issue. • • According to a senior Iranian source, Washington is willing to release 25% of Tehran’s frozen assets in phases, while Iran is insisting on unrestricted access to all of its funds and the full removal of U.S. sanctions.
Iran’s revised proposal reportedly calls for a permanent end to the war, full sanctions relief, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. • • Iran’s nuclear program would be addressed only in later stages of the negotiations. • • In short, nothing changed. President Trump will not be happy.
IRAN–US TALKS: LIMITED FLEXIBILITY AS FUND FREEZE AND HORMUZ DEMANDS EMERGE • • A senior Iranian source told Reuters that the US has shown limited flexibility in ongoing talks, including on Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief. • • Washington has reportedly agreed so far to unfreeze only 25% of Iranian funds on a phased schedule, while Tehran is demanding full access to its assets and a complete lifting of sanctions. • • Iran’s revised proposal also calls for a permanent end to conflict, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a delayed approach to detailed nuclear negotiations in later stages.
The New York Times reported, citing two Middle Eastern officials, that the United States and Israel are making "extensive" preparations for the possibility of renewed attacks against the Islamic Republic. These officials suggested that the attacks could begin this week. According to the newspaper, this level of military readiness is unprecedented since the ceasefire was implemented.
Where does the news lean?
24YES167NO86neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
gamma-backfill
Related markets
See all outcomes for US x Iran permanent peace deal — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.