US strike on ColombiaDecember 31

OpenVol$1.1MDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 36% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES36¢
NO64¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOalhadath99%match77¢-17%
The incident occurred on May 8, 2026. Footage released by the US Southern Command shows a sniper firing from a helicopter at a boat suspected of being used for drug trafficking off the coast of Colombia in the Caribbean Sea.
NOalarabiya99%match74¢-14%
The incident occurred on May 8, 2026. Footage released by the US Southern Command shows a sniper firing from a helicopter at a boat suspected of being used for drug trafficking off the coast of Colombia in the Caribbean Sea.

Where does the news lean?

0YES3NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

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