US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
Open$181Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
US evacuates all its military aircraft from Al Udeid Sentinel-2 satellite images released today show that the US has completely evacuated its military base in Al Udeid, Qatar. According to open source intelligence (OSINT) information, on July 17 (July 26), there were 17 military aircraft stationed at the base, which was reduced to 3 by Wednesday (July 31). However, images released on Friday show that there are now no aircraft at the base and that the US military has reportedly transferred all of them to Israel. News sources say that the withdrawal of US military equipment shows that the base is no longer safe from Iranian attacks. These sources also claim that the widespread transfer of American equipment and aircraft to Israel could be a sign of the possibility of an imminent escalation of tensions and conflicts in the region. Get the latest news:
Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
The United States has completed the evacuation of all military cargo and refueling aircraft from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.
¶ Urgent The remaining US refueling aircraft at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar are now departing for the entity.
The number of US refueling aircraft at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar has risen to 23, up from 12 two weeks ago and zero a month ago.
Where does the news lean?
17YES2NO14neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will completely withdraw from Al Udeid Air Base between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base refers to a US directive to remove all military personnel from the base.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of The United States’ present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. An announcement of a decision to implement such a withdrawal will qualify, regardless of whether some personnel remain at the base, or whether personnel are intended to remain for a period of time prior to withdrawal.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. The announcement need not use specific terminology, provided the substance of a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base is clearly and unambiguously communicated. For example, an announcement that the United States will permanently end military operations at Al Udeid Air Base, or withdraw all troops from Qatar (necessarily including Al Udeid), would qualify; however a vague announcement that the United States will draw down its troop presence in the middle east would not.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for Donald Trump or the United States government or military;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of a withdrawal rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the withdrawal is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.