Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Open$314Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 44% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES44¢
NO56¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Charlie Kirk murder case as 'straight-forward' as it gets, prosecutors argue as case nears trial decision
Devastating Evidence: Tyler Robinson Preliminary Hearing A Slam Dunk For Prosecution
I was in the courtroom, in the jury box with allowed media, and saw this video played, too. • • The truth I think, as it often is, is somewhere in the middle of the accounts from the court room: from Kirk supporters like Benny and conspiracist creators who made it into the public seats. • • The video we saw at parts, was clearer—zoomed in in parts and with the man they alleged to be Tyler Robinson circled in parts. As I wrote in my notes, you could see the man they say is Tyler Robinson lie down on the roof during the time Kirk is shot. But it’s not a crisp video like some are suggesting or assuming. • • I heard no one gasp. I did see Erika Kirk and Charlie’s mother embrace and sob when they showed who they say is Robinson cross the roof and lie down as the clock ticked to the moment Kirk was shot. The people I talked to outside afterwards were moved by the emotion. Even a few people that had pushed conspiracy theories acknowledged to me outside after that it had been gutting to see. As a wife and a mother and a human, I felt it too. • • I think this week has made clear that no matter the evidence, conspiracist creators, including Candace Owens and the baby creators in her orbit, will never ever accept that Tyler Robinson killed Charlie Kirk. There’s too much incentive for them not to. • • And I think this is a really good example of why every part of these proceedings should be public, as the Kirk family, the state, and media have called for.
New testimony is shedding more light on the case surrounding Charlie Kirk's killing. • • During a five-day preliminary hearing in Utah, accused assassin Tyler Robinson's former roommate and former lover testified that Robinson confessed to killing Kirk and had been engraving bullets for up to a month before the shooting. • • Prosecutors also unveiled the rifle investigators believe was used in the attack. • • Experts testified that DNA linked to Robinson was found on the firearm, while the defense argued the evidence does not conclusively tie the weapon to the killing. • • @MattFinnFNC breaks down the key moments from court.
Live: Analyst says rifle DNA testing was at least ‘1 trillion times more likely to support inclusion of Tyler Robinson’
Tyler Robinson, the man accused of killing conservative activist Charlie Kirk during an event at Utah Valley University in September 2025, told his roommate he wished "he hadn't done it," according to an interview played in court Thursday:
NEW: Tyler Robinson's behavior in court noticeably changed as his former lover's testimony was played for millions to see. • • Lance Twiggs identifies Robinson in surveillance video and details the alleged planning behind the assassination of Charlie Kirk, while also telling jurors the two rarely discussed politics but that Robinson would talk about Trump. • • @ChanleySPainter breaks down Robinson's courtroom behavior during the testimony and the key moments jurors heard.
Prosecutors in a Utah courtroom played an interview with Tyler Robinson's former roommate and romantic partner, Lance Twiggs, describing the moment the pair first saw each other the day after the shooting of Charlie Kirk. "I just asked him in person if what he said was true the night before and he said it was,” Twiggs said in the video.
Live: Suspect in Charlie Kirk Killing Admitted to the Crime in Text Messages, Prosecutors Say
Suspect in Charlie Kirk Killing Admitted to the Crime in Text Messages, Prosecutors Say
DNA found on gun and cartridges allegedly used to kill Charlie Kirk overwhelmingly likely to belong to Tyler Robinson: forensic report
Live: Prosecutors show weapon Tyler Robinson allegedly used to kill Charlie Kirk
Live: DNA found on gun and cartridges is overwhelmingly likely likely Tyler Robinson's: forensics report
Accused Charlie Kirk shooter confessed, roommate says in video played in court
Live: Prosecutors are showing the first images of the bolt-action rifle they say Tyler Robinson used to kill Charlie Kirk. A sergeant is testifying how the gun was found in woods near the scene of the shooting, wrapped in a dark towel.
Accused Charlie Kirk assassin allegedly confessed in texts, apologized and described motive, agent testifies
Live: Sergeant Faumuina testified earlier this week about DNA testing on a towel found wrapped around a bolt-action rifle believed to be used in the assassination, as well as a screwdriver found on the roof from which prosecutors say the assassin fired. Analysts linked Robinson to DNA found on both items, though his lawyers have sought to cast doubt on that analysis.
Live: Prosecutors stiffened the murder charge against Tyler Robinson because, they say, he targeted Charlie Kirk because of his expression of political views. As part of that argument, they entered a document into evidence from a board member of Kirk’s conservative activist group, Turning Point USA, that describes its political and religious views.
Live: The text messages between Lance Twiggs and Robinson are crucial because prosecutors will use them to try to prove Robinson’s planning, premeditation and motive, all apparently in his own words. It is unclear how the defense will respond, in part because Twiggs is not here in court today to be cross-examined. The defense wanted to question him, but the judge declined.
Tyler Robinson's and Lance Twiggs' DNA both allegedly found on key evidence in Charlie Kirk's assassination
Where does the news lean?
110YES3NO146neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.