Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Open$547Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 31% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES31¢
NO70¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Charlie Kirk murder: US judge rules suspect Tyler Robinson will stand trial
Statement from Kirk family on judge ruling Tyler Robinson will stand trial:
BREAKING: Judge rules that the trial of Tyler Robinson in Charlie Kirk’s killing can go forward
BREAKING: A Utah judge orders Tyler Robinson to stand trial in the assassination of Charlie Kirk and rules prosecutors may continue seeking the death penalty. • • Judge Tony Graf found prosecutors presented enough evidence for the murder case and capital sentencing enhancement to move forward.
Charlie Kirk’s alleged killer will stand trial on capital murder charges, judge rules
Live: Prosecutors cite ‘mountain of evidence’ tying Robinson to Charlie Kirk killing as judge weighs trial
Live: Prosecutors argue evidence proves Tyler Robinson was the shooter
New testimony is shedding more light on the case surrounding Charlie Kirk's killing. • • During a five-day preliminary hearing in Utah, accused assassin Tyler Robinson's former roommate and former lover testified that Robinson confessed to killing Kirk and had been engraving bullets for up to a month before the shooting. • • Prosecutors also unveiled the rifle investigators believe was used in the attack. • • Experts testified that DNA linked to Robinson was found on the firearm, while the defense argued the evidence does not conclusively tie the weapon to the killing. • • @MattFinnFNC breaks down the key moments from court.
I’m in court for the Tyler Robinson hearing again today and the amount of evidence we got to take a look at just now was overwhelming. Prosecutors showed video interview of Lance Twiggs, texts between Lance Twiggs and Tyler Robinson, private chats with friends who played DND and Tyler Robinson, and a note prosecutors say Tyler Robinson left for Lance Twiggs. In each one, Tyler Robinson seems to confess to the murder of Charlie Kirk. • • And in Lance Twiggs’ interview, he says he met with Tyler Robinson in the morning after the shooting where Tyler confessed again, cried, and said “ he wishes he hadn’t done it” and planned to turn himself in. • • As a small conspiracist creator outside the courthouse just told me: “ it’s a bad day for the conspiracy theorists”
Live: Prosecutors presented a Discord message in which they say that Robinson confessed. Robinson’s online friends were confused “because you’re saying it was you.” Robinson replied, “It was.” Another protested, “No it wasn’t lmao.” Robinson then wrote, “Look at the photos from the surveillance footage. It was me.”
Live: Much material released in the courtroom has already been disseminated publicly, but not all. Authorities already released an exchange in which they say Mr. Robinson asked Mr. Twiggs to delete their exchange on the evening of the assassination. Today, they presented a response from Mr. Twiggs: “alright.” They say Mr. Twiggs not only retained the texts but also photographed a letter Mr. Robinson had left under his computer keyboard. “I’m likely dead or facing a lengthy prison sentence,” the note reads.
Live: The text messages between Lance Twiggs and Robinson are crucial because prosecutors will use them to try to prove Robinson’s planning, premeditation and motive, all apparently in his own words. It is unclear how the defense will respond, in part because Twiggs is not here in court today to be cross-examined. The defense wanted to question him, but the judge declined.
Live: DNA matching Tyler Robinson, Lance Twiggs found on towel and screwdriver, forensics officers claim
Live: Prosecutors have called a fourth witness, Amanda Bakker, a forensic analyst for the FBI’s DNA lab. She signed the report that linked Tyler Robinson’s DNA to the towel, as well as a screwdriver left on the roof of the campus building from which prosecutors say the assassin fired.
Live: Prosecutors introduced an F.B.I. report that indicated that DNA from both Tyler Robinson and his roommate and romantic partner, Lance Twiggs, was found on a towel wrapped around a rifle left near the shooting scene. The authorities have said that they believe Robinson acted alone, and that Twiggs is cooperating with the police.
Live: Judge delivers another win to prosecutors as Robinson's motive comes into focus
Prosecutors show video of Charlie Kirk’s killing on second day of hearing
Video shows suspect in sniper position as Charlie Kirk shot, Utah prosecutors say
Live: Tyler Robinson admitted he was involved in Charlie Kirk assassination, investigator says
Live: New security footage from Utah Valley University was played in court, showing a man the police say is Tyler Robinson arriving around 8:30 a.m. on the day of the shooting, Sept. 10. Agent David Hull testified that Robinson went to an amphitheater and interacted with members of Charlie Kirk’s group, Turning Point USA, before leaving. He returned to campus later that morning and bought food from a Chick-Fil-A, roughly two hours before the shooting.
Where does the news lean?
121YES3NO197neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.