Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?
Open$30Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
BESSENT ON FED RAISE: TRUMP ALSO CONFIDENT IN WARSH
NOReuters92%match99¢-1%
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent on Fed Raise: Trump Also Confident in Warsh
Trump Backs Kevin Warsh After Fed Rate Hike: October 2026 Outlook. • President Donald Trump continued to back Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh after the September 2026 Fed rate hike, even as he ma
Trump backs Fed's Warsh following rate hike
Kevin Warsh raised rates and gave investors little reason to think it's a one-off. The Fed chairman's language suggests the central bank sees more work ahead, even if its projections show just one more hike. • • His comment about having "removed a dose of accommodation" is Fed-speak for stimulus, meaning officials don't think rates are restraining the economy even after raising them. • • He also cited geopolitics as a reason to act. His comment about a change in "our judgment about what is the most likely or least likely" outcome suggests the Fed is no longer treating the energy shock as something to wait out. • • That led one analyst, BNP's James Egelhof, to suggest that the first hike and the additional 2026 hike penciled into the rate projections is "likely a down payment on what might need to be a much more prolonged policy tightening cycle." • • President Trump said Wednesday evening that he was standing by the chairman, who he said has “a very tough board" that is politically opposed to him. “I talked to Kevin. I said, ‘You might as well vote with the board because it’s not going to matter." • • Warsh declined to discuss his conversations with the president but said the choice to raise rates had been “one that we have been preparing for and thinking about” since he arrived at the Fed in May. He called it a “sober,” “serious,” and “responsible” decision. • •
Trump stated that he still supports Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, and said he spoke with Warsh shortly before the central bank unanimously voted to raise interest rates.
Trump Says He Backs Warsh After Central Bank Raised Interest Rates -- WSJ
Trump says he still has confidence in Fed Chair Warsh, demands 1% or lower interest rates
Trump blames Fed board, not Warsh, for rate hikes
[UPDATE] Trump says he still has confidence in Fed Chair Warsh, demands 1% or lower interest rates (first reported at 2026-09-16T20:45:38+0000)
TRUMP: STILL HAVE CONFIDENCE IN FED CHAIR WARSH
NONews95%match96¢+2%
US President Trump: Relying on Fed Chairman Warsh
Trump: I still have confidence in Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh.
#Breaking #Here_is_the_Kingdom
Trump: . The interest rate is too high and doesn't reflect the true state of the economy. . I want Kevin Warsh to be independent.
Trump says he still has confidence in Fed Chair Warsh
Trump: I want Kevin Warsh to be independent.
NOReuters95%match92¢+7%
Trump: Still Have Confidence in Fed Chair Warsh
Asked whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh should avoid hiking interest rates before the election, Trump tells @JakeSherman: “Well, it’s up to him a little bit, but not completely. He’s got a board that’s very political … It’s not totally up to him. It’s up to a board. I think he’s great. I won’t be criticizing him.”
Bloomberg reported that US President Donald Trump has held regular phone calls with Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh since taking office, in the latest sign of Trump's efforts to strengthen his influence over the central bank. The agency quoted sources as saying that Trump inquired about Warsh's forecasts and opinions, without pressuring him to take any specific course. #Arabic_Business
SCOOP: President Trump has spoken repeatedly with Kevin Warsh over the phone since he became chairman of the Federal Reserve, maintaining a line of communication between a president and a central bank chief that has little recent precedent. • • Trump now sees Warsh as a valued outside economic adviser. • • Their continued conversations are a sharp departure from how former Fed chair Jerome Powell handled both Trump and former President Biden. The relationship is more similar to that of Clinton-Greenspan. • • The new developments on the Trump-Warsh relationship could also bring more scrutiny on the independent central bank. • • Story w/ @PhilipWegmann and @NickTimiraos •
Where does the news lean?
3YES40NO11neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.