Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?
Open$12Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Asked whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh should avoid hiking interest rates before the election, Trump tells @JakeSherman: “Well, it’s up to him a little bit, but not completely. He’s got a board that’s very political … It’s not totally up to him. It’s up to a board. I think he’s great. I won’t be criticizing him.”
TRUMP: FED RATE DECISION ISN’T JUST UP TO WARSH • • Asked whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh should avoid raising interest rates before the election, Trump said: • • “It’s up to him a little bit, but not completely. • • He’s got a board that’s very political. • <br... TRUMP: FED RATE DECISION ISN’T JUST UP TO WARSH • • Asked whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh should avoid raising interest rates before the election, Trump said: • • “It’s up to him a little bit, but not completely. • • He’s got a board that’s very political. • • It’s not totally up to him. It’s up to a board. • • I think he’s great. I won’t be criticizing him.”
For the FED watchers. • • I asked Trump whether KEVIN WARSH should avoid a rate hike before the election: • • “Well, it's up to him a little bit, but not completely. He's got a board that's very political … It's not totally up to him. It's up to a board. I think he's great. I won't be criticizing him. • •
Bloomberg reported that US President Donald Trump has held regular phone calls with Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh since taking office, in the latest sign of Trump's efforts to strengthen his influence over the central bank. The agency quoted sources as saying that Trump inquired about Warsh's forecasts and opinions, without pressuring him to take any specific course. #Arabic_Business
SCOOP: President Trump has spoken repeatedly with Kevin Warsh over the phone since he became chairman of the Federal Reserve, maintaining a line of communication between a president and a central bank chief that has little recent precedent. • • Trump now sees Warsh as a valued outside economic adviser. • • Their continued conversations are a sharp departure from how former Fed chair Jerome Powell handled both Trump and former President Biden. The relationship is more similar to that of Clinton-Greenspan. • • The new developments on the Trump-Warsh relationship could also bring more scrutiny on the independent central bank. • • Story w/ @PhilipWegmann and @NickTimiraos •
Where does the news lean?
0YES13NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.