Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?
Open$50Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES4¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
AOC: IN SOME WAYS, YOU KIND OF WANT THIS GUY ON A GOLF COURSE MORE THAN YOU WANT HIM IN THE OVAL OFFICE. BUT THAT ALSO CALLS INTO QUESTION THE 25TH AMENDMENT, BECAUSE IF THE DETERMINATION IS THAT TRUMP CANNOT BE TRUSTED IN THE SITUATION ROOM, THEN HE’S NOT FIT TO BE PRESIDENT. ...
Periodic reminder that it’s harder to remove a president under the 25th Amendment than in a conventional impeachment & removal scenario • • 25A requires • • the VP & other top officials to initiate —and then • • BOTH chambers of Congress to vote by 2/3ds to remove
International law expert to US Vice President: Remove Trump by activating the 25th Amendment, or you yourself will be complicit in war crimes Reza Nasri's message to Vance: Use your authority to activate the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution as soon as possible. This is no longer a political choice, but a legal duty. The US President's recent statements indicate that his orders constitute war crimes under international law. Any order that violates the laws of war is inherently illegal. Soldiers and commanders who carry out such an order can be tried personally in international courts. The excuse "I was ordered to" has also been disallowed since the Nuremberg trials. If cabinet members fail to activate Amendment 25 in the face of clear evidence of war crimes, they themselves may be held responsible for these crimes and even face criminal prosecution. @isna94
Where does the news lean?
0YES3NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.