Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
ResolvedOutcome: No$24.3Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
49 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
IRAN: NO HORMUZ REOPENING DEAL • • Iran says reports that it agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are false. • • A source cited by Fars News says no deal has been accepted. • • The report adds the strait will remain closed while the US continues what Iran calls "hostile actions." • • Ships may only pass via Iran's designated route and with permission from the IRGC Navy.
The Persian Gulf Waterway Management Authority announced that due to the continued "aggressive" actions of US military forces in the region, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not possible. The authority added: "As soon as stability and calm are established, all requests will be reviewed and permits will be issued in a timely manner."
Due to the aggressive actions of the United States, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not possible Persian Gulf Waterway Management Authority:
Due to the continued aggressive actions of the United States military forces in the region, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not possible. As soon as stability and calm are established, all requests will be reviewed and permits will be issued in a timely manner. @IRIBNEWS_COM
The Persian Gulf Waterway Authority has reiterated that due to the continued aggressive actions of the US, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not possible. The authority added that as soon as stability and calm are restored, all requests will be reviewed and permits will be issued in order. #Iran
The Iranian authority managing the Strait of Hormuz: Transit requests through Hormuz will be considered once calm and stability are restored to the region.
Strait of Hormuz traffic may not return to normal for 12 months or more, according to prediction markets
Shipping data: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has stabilized at 3 ships per day over the past three days.
Reuters, citing shipping data: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has stabilized at 3 ships per day over the past three days.
Traffic volumes in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have declined.
Live: Vessel traffic in Strait of Hormuz falls further
The Strait Of Hormuz Is Caught In The Crossfire Again. Traffic Has Plummeted By Two Thirds. • Tankers are increasingly avoiding the Strait of Hormuz since hostilities between the U.S. and Iran resumed, according to new data.
Shipping transits slow to a trickle as Strait of Hormuz faces “worst-case scenario”
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has almost completely stopped, with only 6 ships passing through the strait in the last 24 hours. #AlArabiya_Business
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic plummets to three-week low, tracking data shows
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic falls to lowest level since May
Data: Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to its lowest level, with only 3 ships passing through in 24 hours.
Shipping data: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains very limited amid renewed US-Iranian strikes
With the return of the blockade on Iranian ports, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has sharply declined, raising concerns about energy supplies.
Live: Shipping through Strait of Hormuz still subdued
Live: Strait of Hormuz crossings plummet again
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic plummets as just 10 ships cross yesterday
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slows to its lowest level in two months
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slows to its lowest level in several weeks
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic slows to five-week low
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic slows to multi-week low
Live: Hormuz traffic slows to multi-week low
Live: Vessel traffic through Strait of Hormuz remains muted
LNG tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed.
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted and almost come to a standstill.
"Without a concrete agreement, the situation will remain very, very unstable": maritime traffic falls again in the Strait of Hormuz after further exchanges of fire.
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic won't rebound without "substantial agreement" between U.S. and Iran, analysts say
Live: Strait of Hormuz oil tanker traffic grinds to near halt
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic down to 23 ships yesterday
Live: Traffic in Strait of Hormuz ‘grinds to a near halt’
Live: Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz "essentially stopped"
IMO chief: 115 ships and 2,500 sailors evacuated from the Strait of Hormuz
IMO chief: 115 ships and 2,500 sailors evacuated from the Strait of Hormuz
Al Arabiya reveals details of the anticipated Iran agreement: Hormuz open and the blockade lifted.
Tehran responds to Trump: The Strait of Hormuz is in our hands, and the nuclear issue was not discussed. Sources to the Iranian Fars News Agency: Trump's statements about the imminent agreement confirmed that the management of the Strait of Hormuz will remain "exclusively" in Iran's hands. The exchanged texts do not grant "complete freedom of passage" through the Strait of Hormuz, but only allow the number of ships to return to previous levels under Tehran's supervision. The nuclear issue was not discussed at all in this round, and Iran did not make any commitments regarding its program. Previously, Trump announced reaching a "preliminary agreement" with Iran, indicating that it includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz. "The details of the agreement with Iran will be announced very soon."
Trump says deal with Iran '"largely negotiated" and would include opening Strait of Hormuz •
#Breaking | New York Times, citing three Iranian officials: The agreement postpones contentious issues related to the nuclear file to a later date.
The agreement focuses on opening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the naval blockade on Iran, and ensuring freedom of navigation for commercial shipping.
Under the agreement, $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets will be released.
Al Jazeera: What does the agreement include? • Ending the war in all arenas, including Lebanon. • Releasing several billion dollars (probably 25 billion) of frozen Iranian funds. • Lifting the American naval blockade and opening the Strait of Hormuz. • Withdrawal of American forces from Iran's immediate vicinity. • After that, the parties will have 30 days to reach an agreement on the nuclear issue. This 30-day period can be extended by mutual agreement. • During these thirty days, free passage through the Strait will be possible. • According to Iran, managing the Strait of Hormuz will be an Iranian-Omani matter, and it is in negotiations with Muscat.
#Breaking | New York Times, citing three Iranian officials: Iran has agreed to a memorandum of understanding that would halt fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz
The agreement will stop fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon
Iran has agreed to a draft deal to stop the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. • • The agreement would halt fighting across the region, including in Lebanon, reopen the strait to free commercial traffic, lift the U.S. naval blockade, and release $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets. • • Nuclear issues would be negotiated separately within 30 to 60 days. • • Source: NYT
New York Times: Three senior Iranian officials confirmed that Iran has agreed to a memorandum of understanding that would halt the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Peace Deal With Iran Largely Negotiated, With Hormuz Reopening Planned • • According to Bloomberg, President Donald Trump said a peace deal with Iran has been largely negotiated and remains subject to finalization between the United States, Iran and other relevant countries. Trump plans to announce the agreement shortly, which would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran previously said the talks were making progress, with the current focus on ending fighting on all fronts and other key disputes to be resolved at a later stage.
Iran has agreed to a memorandum of understanding that would halt fighting on all fronts including Lebanon, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US naval blockade, allow free commercial traffic, and release $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets. Nuclear issues would be negotiated within 30 to 60 days - NYT
The New York Times, citing three Iranian officials: We have agreed to a memorandum of understanding that would halt the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Three senior Iranian officials said Iran had agreed to a memorandum of understanding that would stop the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Where does the news lean?
64YES177NO7neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.