SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
Open$12Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 59% chance that this market resolves SpaceX, as of .
SpaceX59¢
OpenAI41¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
SpaceX stock rebounds to near $135 IPO price
Global IPO fundraising surges 206%! SpaceX sets record for largest IPO ever.
SpaceX’s First Lock-up Release After ‘Post-IPO Plummet’... Will ‘900 Million Share’ Sell-off Shake Stock Price?
On Tuesday, Musk outlined ambitious goals for SpaceX, including sending a data center into space by 2027 and achieving $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. SpaceX's first earnings report since its IPO showed significant increases in both revenue and capital expenditures.
SpaceX's First Report Card Since IPO... Starlink Covered AI Deficits
SpaceX's first earnings report since its IPO: Revenue nearly doubled, AI business significantly reduced losses, and capital expenditures far exceeded expectations.
SpaceX reports 92% revenue jump in first post-IPO earnings
SpaceX tops revenue expectations in first earnings report after IPO
SpaceX earnings live updates: First report since IPO, Starlink and AI in focus
Wall Street's focus this summer: Can SpaceX's first earnings report after its IPO reverse its stock price decline before the lock-up period expires?
$SPCX - SPACEX EARNINGS: ANALYSTS FOCUSED ON AI, NOT THE QUARTER • • SpaceX reports earnings today, but Bernstein says "the quarterly results should not matter." • • Instead, analysts are focused on management's confidence in its AI and orbital data center strategy. • • Bernstein says the investment case is about "if, not when" for a multi-trillion-dollar valuation, while Deutsche Bank expects in-line results and believes the stock could stabilize after lock-up expirations. Both see AI growth as the key catalyst.
🇺🇸 Less than two months after a record-breaking IPO, SpaceX is set to publish its first quarterly results after markets close on Tuesday, as the share price of Elon Musk's rocket ship and AI company has lost around half its value since peaking in June. • âž¡ï¸�
SpaceX's First Earnings Is Coming. Here's What To Look Out For. • SpaceX (SPCX) reports its first post-IPO earnings in August. Discover key financial metrics, Starlink subscriber growth, AI spend and lockup risks to watch.
SpaceX’s record IPO is helping spur a new wave of startups aiming for orbit and opening a vast new market beyond Earth
SpaceX to release its first earnings report since its IPO on the 4th; market expects a loss.
SpaceX Returns To Earth As Pre-IPO Warnings Play Out. • SpaceX shares have sharply corrected six weeks after their record IPO, dropping nearly 14% below the $135 offering price, wiping out over $1.2 trillion in market value.
SpaceX stock plunges 20% below its IPO price, and the company loses $1.2 trillion in market value at its peak.
SpaceX conducts first large rocket launch test since its IPO, deploying a new satellite.
SpaceX makes history... with one of the worst IPOs in years. • • A Barron’s analysis found that the stock has performed worse than 90% of other U.S. IPOs with market capitalizations of $1 billion or more since July, 2009.
OpenAICNBC98%match6¢+583%
Musk announces xAI re-org following co-founder departures, SpaceX merger
Where does the news lean?
35SpaceX3OpenAI33neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve SpaceX?
This market will resolve to “SpaceX” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to “OpenAI” if the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal.
- Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.