SBF released from custody in 2026?
Open$450Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES4¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
US appellate court mandate affirms Sam Bankman-Fried conviction
Sam Bankman-Fried's appeal denied by federal court
Where does the news lean?
0YES3NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.