Will Rivian Automotive (RIVN) beat quarterly earnings?
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$5Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
$RIVN | Rivian Q2 26 Earnings: • • • Revenue: $1.66B (est $1.52B) • • Loss/Share: 63c vs Loss/Share 97c Y/Y • • Vehicles Delivered: 12,194 (est 11,471) • • Still Sees FY Vehicles Delivered: 65,000 To 70,000
RIVIAN $RIVN JUST REPORTED Q2 EARNINGS • • • Revenue of $1.66B beating expectations of $1.51B • • EPS of -$0.63 • • FY 2026 guidance: • • Vehicle deliveries of 65,000 to 70,000, raised from prior guidance of 62,000 to 67,000 • • Adjusted EBITDA of -$2.0B to -$1.8B, in line with expectations of -$1.99B • • Capital expenditures of $1.7B to $1.8B • • • Rivian recognized approximately $100M in incremental cost of revenue during the quarter related to the ramp of R2 production.
Where does the news lean?
2YES0NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
As of market creation, Rivian Automotive is estimated to release earnings on July 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Rivian Automotive's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-0.78 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rivian Automotive reports GAAP EPS greater than $-0.78 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Rivian Automotive releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.