Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?
Open$222Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
YESBloomberg99%match13¢-85%
It has been nearly four centuries since the arrest of a senior British royal. The detainment of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor on his 66th birthday is a fresh nadir for the UK’s most powerful family, as it tries to outrun a litany of setbacks and adapt to the 21st century. Read more:…
YESReuters98%match13¢-85%
How Reuters captured the photo of former Prince Andrew leaving custody
YESThe Hill99%match13¢-85%
King Charles III on former Prince Andrew’s arrest: ‘The law must take its course’
YESCGTN America98%match31¢-94%
Trump calls British royal Andrew's arrest 'very sad'
YESAcyn98%match31¢-94%
NEW: Maria Farmer reacts to Andrew's arrest.
YEStradfi news98%match31¢-94%
*TRUMP: ARREST OF ANDREW IS 'SO BAD FOR THE ROYAL FAMILY' *TRUMP SAYS KING CHARLES COMING TO US SOON
YESReuters98%match31¢-94%
King Charles attended a London Fashion Week show hours after his brother Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was arrested over allegations of sending confidential documents to Jeffrey Epstein
Where does the news lean?
17YES4NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.