Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
Open$43Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 16% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES16¢
NO85¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Peru: Pardon request for former president Pedro Castillo rejected The Presidential Pardons Directorate denied the request submitted by Congressman Elías Varas on behalf of former president José Pedro Castillo Terrones, as it failed to specify the type of pardon requested, thus violating the Commission's Internal Regulations.
The Ministry of Justice of #Peru rejected the request for a presidential pardon for Pedro Castillo. The request, submitted by a congressman, did not specify the type of pardon nor did it meet the regulatory requirements. #teleSUR #JusticePeru
Where does the news lean?
0YES2NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.