OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenVol$316KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 14% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES14¢
NO87¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

YESa16z91%match23¢-39%
Greg Brockman: "We're now in the AGI era." • • Ten years ago, OpenAI worked out the compute curves and landed on fifteen years to AGI, or ten if the world was willing to build the machines and spend the hundreds of billions to do it. • • In 2026, GPT-6 Astra manages 24 hours of coherent operation, 10,000 agents worked together to solve Navier-Stokes, and a model ingeniously chained together exploits to break containment at Hugging Face. • • @gdb joins @bhorowitz and @eriktorenberg on what the AGI era asks of us: why safety and alignment now set the pace, what happens to work, and why AI sentiment is lowest in the country building it. • • 00:00 Intro • 00:52 15 years, or 10 if you spend enough • 02:24 Pacing the frontier • 03:55 Safety ideas from before the models • 08:42 Lessons from Hugging Face • 10:20 The defender's window • 12:46 10,000 agents on Navier-Stokes • 14:50 Formally verifying all software • 17:10 Cancelling his holiday for GPT-3 • 18:42 Codex found 13 holes in 15 minutes • 20:41 Why Astra earned the GPT-6 title • 24:25 Employment keeps going up • 29:39 America has the lowest AI sentiment • 31:10 The benefits don't make the news • 33:26 Banning data centers exports them • 35:50 $1 billion for frontline defenders • 38:15 Astra cleared the bar for AGI • 40:18 1.5 billion people churned ChatGPT • 43:25 Killing Sora • 47:45 The AGI era • • YouTube:
YESibtimes.com93%match19¢-26%
OpenAI Says Artificial General Intelligence Is Here. Bernie Sanders Is Calling For a Pause of AI Development.. • "We need an immediate PAUSE on advanced AI development, and a permanent BAN on superintelligence," Sanders said.
YESCGTN America98%match15¢-7%
OpenAI on Wednesday, Dec. 10, warned that its upcoming artificial intelligence (AI) models could pose a "high" cybersecurity risk, as their capabilities advance rapidly. The AI models might either develop working zero-day remote exploits against well-defended systems or assist…

Where does the news lean?

7YES1NO10neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.