NVIDIA (NVDA) all-time high by ___?December 31, 2026
Open$1Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 82% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES82¢
NO19¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Nvidia Soars 7% In Premarket As It Leads Upswing In Chip Stocks After Strong Earnings. • Nvidia said it expects revenue to rise by 70% in the next fiscal year as it sought to calm market jitter about demand for AI compute.
NVIDIA (NVDA) F2Q27 Earnings Highlights F2Q Results Slightly Exceed Expectations
- Revenue: USD 96.2 billion (+18% QoQ, +106% YoY), GF Securities 94.5 billion, Bloomberg Securities 92.3 billion, Buy-Side Advisors 94.6 billion
- Data Center Revenue: USD 89 billion
- Gross Margin: 75%, GF Securities 75.1%, Bloomberg Securities 75%
- EPS: $2.22, GF Securities $2.15, Bloomberg Securities $2.09, Buy-Side Advisors $2.18 F3Q Revenue Guidance Fully In Line with Us but Slightly Above Market Expectations, GM Slightly Below Expectations
- Revenue Guidance: USD 108±2% billion, GF Securities 108 billion, Bloomberg Securities 104 billion, Buy-Side Advisors 109 billion
- Gross margin guidance: 73.5-74.5% (official guidance: 74.0% ±50bps), GF Securities 75.1%, Bloomberg 74.8%
- Vera Rubin has shipped, F3Q is expected to contribute approximately 20% of DC revenue
- Storage costs exceeded expectations, F4Q gross margin guidance is 71-72%, rebounding to FY28 72-73% following the price increase in F1Q28
- Full-year OPEX growth is low-50s
FY28 revenue guidance exceeded expectations
- FY28 revenue is expected to increase by 70% YoY
- 70% growth is due to supply constraints, customer-forecasted demand is 100% growth
Data Center
- Hyperscale F2Q revenue $49 billion (+13% QoQ), F4Q and FY28 will see renewed acceleration
- AWS Expanded collaborations, adding 2 million GPUs to F2Q29
- ACI&E F2Q revenue of $40 billion (+25% QoQ), driven by Neoclouds capacity expansion (expected 8GW by the end of 2026)
- Sovereign AI F2Q revenue +35% QoQ, achieved through Regional NeoCloud
CPU
- Vera CPUs are now in full production, shipping to OCI, SpaceX, and AWS
- $20 billion in Server CPU demand, FY28 CPU revenue more than doubled year-on-year
Neoclouds
- Revenue-sharing model, Nvidia shares a portion of upside revenue when NeoCloud revenue exceeds guaranteed levels
- Nvidia can "Get paid twice": hardware sales + Rental Revenue Sharing
- Driving TAM expansion, bringing billions of dollars in revenue in the medium to long term
Capital return
- F2Q Buyback of $20 billion, quarterly dividend of $6 billion
- Year-to-date (YTD) reaches approximately 60% of FCF (originally planned ≥50%)
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Other Summary
- Nvidia AI Factory revenue per GW increases: Hopper approximately $18 billion/GW → Blackwell $25 billion/GW → Vera Rubin $40 billion/GW
- Networking revenue F2Q +18% QoQ, Spectrum-X Ethernet year-over-year growth of 2.6x
- Frontier AI Labs' growth exceeds its own B/S-supported investment scale, Nvidia has invested approximately $50 billion
- OpenAI commits to deploying 12GW by 2030
- Partnering with SoftBank Energy to deploy computing power at Portsmouth Campus (initial deployment 4.25GW)
- Inventory rises to $32 billion, Vera Rubin stockpiling
- DSO rises to 60-day payment period extended for large purchases by some major customers
- F2Q sales of H200 to China account for less than 1% of total DC revenue; guidance excludes China revenue
- Groq 3 LPX full production; Nebius to be the first to adopt it
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Stock Performance
- After-hours stock price rose more than 4%, driven by the company's FY28 revenue +70% YoY guidance, rapid Vera Rubin ramp-up, and optimistic CPU outlook.
Nvidia's Q2 earnings report: Record-high revenue and net profit; August-October revenue projected at $108 billion.
$NVDA - again!
Where does the news lean?
15YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and the date specified in the title, any 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) has a final "High" price above $236.54, NVDA’s official all-time intraday high as published by Nasdaq, set on May 14, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The adjustment ratio and ex-date will be as published in the corporate_actions field of Pyth’s symbol metadata (https://pyth.dourolabs.app/v1/symbols).
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the NVIDIA (NVDA) "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Please note that qualification depends solely on Pyth candle data; the Nasdaq figure defines the historical threshold only, and prices from other sources will not be considered except as provided in the preceding paragraph.
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