Bank of Japan Decision in July?No change
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$349Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The question is how well the government and the Bank of Japan are communicating. Intervention plus a dovish meeting just doesn't add up. However, Governor Ueda doesn't seem like the type of gentleman to suddenly change his stance. The contradictions between the government and the Ministry of Finance regarding their policy direction haven't been resolved either. Currently, the exchange rate is seeing the intervention as a temporary effect, leading to a sell-off of the yen, while stocks are rising, seeing the intervention as compensation for not raising interest rates.
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at its July meeting, but is considering revising its FY2026 growth forecast upward.
The Bank of Japan is likely to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at its July meeting, and is expected to maintain its policy of raising interest rates.
Where does the news lean?
3YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
How did this market resolve?
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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See all outcomes for Bank of Japan Decision in July? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.