Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense MinisterJuly 17
ResolvedOutcome: No$30Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Europe is concerned about the future of joint agreements with Ukraine following the resignation of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, writes EUObserver. On July 15, Fedorov announced his resignation. He later admitted that he had a conflict with the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi. Yevhen Khmara was appointed acting Minister of Defense of Ukraine. "For Europe, these are not distant palace intrigues. In the final days of his tenure, Fedorov signed agreements granting Ukrainian companies access to EU programs, financing, and co-production," the publication's article says. According to the publication, the question is whether the previous format of tenders and procurement will be maintained after Fedorov's departure. The FT, citing a source in the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, writes that Syrskyi, with whom Fedorov had a conflict, does not have a specific strategy and is relying on extending mobilization. Fedorov, however, proposed other solutions, which exacerbated their differences. The appointment of Yevhen Khmara as acting Minister of Defense, the source believes, will not resolve the conflict between the ministry and the General Staff. On July 16, the Verkhovna Rada approved the appointment of 16 ministers to the new cabinet, excluding the heads of the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, dismissing Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. This sparked a "cardboard Maidan" across Ukraine. The ministry was offered to be headed by former Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko, but he declined the position. More IZ RU news in MAX [in reply to: The resignation of Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has intensified the political crisis in the country, Reuters writes. According to the agency, the resignation of the head of the military department has sparked a conflict within the Ukrainian leadership, public accusations, and protests in several major cities. After the announcement of his resignation, Fedorov confirmed disagreements with the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrsky. According to him, the general blocked initiatives from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, refused to discuss the army's problems, and "wove intrigues." Fedorov added that he proposed to Volodymyr Zelenskyy to replace the commander-in-chief, but the head of the Kyiv regime did not support the idea. It is alleged that after this, Syrsky began blocking reforms to the Central Control Center and "figured out how to divide the country." Zelensky nominated Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko to replace Fedorov. According to Ukrainian media, he declined the position, and the vote on his candidacy never took place. Meanwhile, in Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities, including Poltava, Lutsk, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, and Kryvyi Rih, residents staged protests against Fedorov's resignation and are demanding a review of personnel decisions. On July 16, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov, commenting on Fedorov's resignation, noted that Moscow does not care who occupies the post of Ukrainian defense minister. According to him, the main thing is that this person is able to make a responsible decision that will allow for a peaceful settlement. More IZ RU news in MAX]
Thousands of people turned out in Kyiv on Friday to protest Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky's sacking of his popular defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov as part of a controversial reshuffle. • • During his barely six months in the post, Fedorov repeatedly clashed with the army's top commander in his efforts to digitise and modernise an army fatigued after four years fighting off the Russian invasion • •
Where does the news lean?
0YES2NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mykhailo Fedorov is reinstated as Ukraine’s Minister of Defense by the listed date at 11:59 PM Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Fedorov will be considered reinstated if he is either i) officially assigned to temporarily perform the minister’s duties or ii) formally nominated for appointment by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Verkhovna Rada.
A temporary reinstatement will be considered to have occurred when the President of Ukraine or the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine officially and definitively announces that Mykhailo Fedorov has been assigned to temporarily perform the duties of the Minister of Defense. A formal nomination will be considered to have occurred upon the submission of Mykhailo Fedorov’s nomination to the Verkhovna Rada.
A public statement, media report, expression of intent, or informal announcement will not qualify, unless it constitutes an official and definitive announcement by the President of Ukraine or the Cabinet of Ministers assigning Fedorov to perform the minister’s duties. Fedorov does not need to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada, take the oath of office, or assume the position on a permanent basis to qualify.
Whether any individual other than Mykhailo Fedorov is nominated, temporarily assigned, or appointed Minister of Defense, within the market timeframe, will not be considered.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information and records from the President of Ukraine, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, and the Verkhovna Rada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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