Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?
Resolved$136Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved. Final market pricing put Under at 0%, as of .
Under0¢
Over100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
What will happen to Germany's CDU after the regional election disaster? In the elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the CDU failed to pass the 5% threshold for the first time in its history, gaining 4.9%. In Berlin, the party received 18.8% and, together with the SPD, lost its majority. The party's defeat is primarily due to Merz's domestic policies, according to political scientist Vadim Trukhachev. In his opinion, the chancellor placed too much emphasis on the foreign agenda, while failing to fulfill his promises to tighten migration policy and create jobs. Some traditional CDU voters, according to the expert, have switched to the AfD. The formerly stable party system in Germany is gradually exhausting itself, and the political field is becoming more fragmented, said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs. He allowed for Merz's departure in the coming months, but noted that even a change of chancellor is unlikely to significantly change Berlin's foreign policy course towards Russia. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
Germany: With less than 5% of the vote, Merz's CDU will not be represented in the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania parliament, a historic first
4,9 Prozent: CDU fliegt aus Landtag Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
Where does the news lean?
0Under5Over0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).