Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
Open$20Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 9% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES9¢
NO91¢
as of
What moved the odds?
19 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
JUST IN: CFTC issues blanket no-action letter on prediction markets, easing swap data reporting requirements.
A Swap By Any Other Name: The Third Circuit Sides With Kalshi In High-Stakes Fight Over Who Regulates Prediction Markets. • If you’ve watched live TV lately, you’ve probably seen advertisements for sports betting. Today, you can place sports bets not only on the well-known online platforms
EXCLUSIVE: The chief U.S. regulator of prediction markets says he'll treat them as financial products — separate from sports gambling — arguing that most people aren't using prediction markets for "entertainment."
Prediction markets and sports betting are "two separate things," regulator says
Prediction markets and sports betting are "two separate things," regulator says
Today’s amicus brief represents the @CFTC’s continued effort to protect our jurisdiction over prediction markets from the ongoing campaign of state encroachment. • • As I’ve said repeatedly, the agency will not allow overzealous state governments to undermine our longstanding authority over these markets. • • Read more
Today’s amicus brief represents the @CFTC’s continued effort to protect our jurisdiction over prediction markets from the ongoing campaign of state encroachment. • • As I’ve said repeatedly, the agency will not allow overzealous state governments to undermine our longstanding authority over these markets. • • Read more
CFTC Reaffirms Exclusive Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets in Sixth Circuit Amicus Brief
CFTC Chief: We Will Keep Suing States That Try to Regulate Prediction Markets -- Barrons.com
Proud to have partnered with @ChairmanSelig to secure this important victory reaffirming CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets.
CFTC Backs Prediction Markets in Yet Another Lawsuit Against a State
Today, the @CFTC sued the State of Wisconsin for encroaching on its exclusive legal authority over prediction markets. We won’t be intimidated by overzealous states seeking to nullify federal law. • •
Today, the @CFTC sued the State of Wisconsin for encroaching on its exclusive legal authority over prediction markets. We won’t be intimidated by overzealous states seeking to nullify federal law. • •
CFTC Sues Wisconsin to Reaffirm its Exclusive Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets
CFTC sues New York over bid to apply gambling laws to prediction markets
CFTC sues New York to block oversight of prediction markets
New York is the latest state to ignore federal law and decades of precedent by seeking to enforce state gambling laws against @CFTC-registered derivatives exchanges. Today’s lawsuit builds upon the @CFTC’s ongoing efforts in other states to protect its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets. • • Read more •
New York is the latest state to ignore federal law and decades of precedent by seeking to enforce state gambling laws against @CFTC-registered derivatives exchanges. Today’s lawsuit builds upon the @CFTC’s ongoing efforts in other states to protect its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets. • • Read more •
NONews99%match89¢+2%
*CFTC CLAIMS EXCLUSIVE OVERSIGHT OF 'CONTRACT MARKETS': BLAW
Where does the news lean?
3YES21NO8neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.