Iran successfully targets shipping on...?July 4
ResolvedOutcome: No$138Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
US military: Our forces carried out airstrikes on Iran in response to an attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz
Trump calls Iranian strike on cargo ship a ‘foolish violation’ of ceasefire
BREAKING NEWS
A "stupid violation" of the ceasefire: Donald Trump claims Iran launched at least four drones against ships in the Strait of Hormuz
Trump's post, machine translated:
The Islamic Republic of Iran fired at least four unilateral attack drones at ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. One of these drones hit the upper deck of a large and very expensive cargo ship directly. Damage was sustained, but the ship was able to continue on its course. We shot down three more drones. It is clear that this is a foolish violation of our ceasefire agreement.
President Donald J. Trump
realDonaldTrump @VahidOnline
Iran attacked a tanker in Hormuz, Trump: "A stupid violation of the ceasefire agreement"
Trump says Iran attacks on ships ‘a foolish violation’ of ceasefire
Trump: The Islamic Republic of Iran shot at least four One Way Attack Drones at Ships transversing the Strait of Hormuz. One of the Drones solidly hit the upper deck of a large and very expensive Cargo Carrying Ship. Damage was done, but the Ship was able to proceed on its way. We knocked down three other Drones. Obviously, this is a foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement. President DONALD J. TRUMP
US President Trump: “The Islamic Republic of Iran shot at least four One Way Attack Drones at Ships transversing the Strait of Hormuz.” - TSL • - “Obviously, this is a foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement” • •
Trump on Truth Social: The Islamic Republic of Iran shot at least four One Way Attack Drones at Ships transversing the Strait of Hormuz. One of the Drones solidly hit the upper deck of a large and very expensive Cargo Carrying Ship. Damage was done, but the Ship was able to proceed on its way. We knocked down three other Drones. Obviously, this is a foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement
The Islamic Republic of Iran shot at least four One Way Attack Drones at Ships transversing the Strait of Hormuz. One of the Drones solidly hit the upper deck of a large and very expensive Cargo Carrying Ship. Damage was done, but the Ship was able to proceed on its way. We knocked down three other Drones. Obviously, this is a foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Kepler said vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained high on July 4, with 54 confirmed commercial and energy-related vessel crossings recorded. Most of these movements were from west to east.
Where does the news lean?
3YES12NO8neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
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