Iran successfully targets shipping on...?July 14
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$23Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Live: India Condemns Deadly Iranian Strike on Commercial Ship
Third wave of Iranian strikes on Hormuz shipping in eight days, with two tankers hit on July 14. • • Both vessels had gone AIS-dark for extended periods beforehand, one over 11 days, the other approx. 7, and carried elevated Iran-program compliance risk. • • Iran is framing these as enforcement against dark, non-compliant tonnage, not Western-ownership targeting. The UAE condemned the strikes as a clear violation of international law and demanded Iran halt hostilities and reopen the Strait. • • Follow for updates.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps “targeted and disabled” two supertankers for turning off navigation systems, ignoring warnings and endangering navigation: Tasnim
Live: What we know about the tankers attacked by Iran
Ukrainians injured in Iran's tanker attack Iranian missiles hit the Mombasa and Al Bahiyah tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The fire on the ships was extinguished, but one crew member died. Eight more were injured, four of them seriously. Two Ukrainian citizens are among the injured. The Iranians have already stated that they have disabled two "violating vessels" that allegedly ignored warnings and wanted to pass through a mined route. The IRGC accuses the US of inciting the vessels to do so.
Live: Iran hits vessels transiting ‘illegal route’
IRGC: Two offending super tankers were deceived and hit The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Public Relations announced: Hours ago, the child-killing US army, which has not learned from repeated failures, tried to force some of the vessels to pass through the illegal route by provoking them. Two offending super tankers, which were deceived by the US and endangered shipping on this route by turning off their navigation systems and ignoring repeated warnings from the Strait of Hormuz Security Control Center and preferred to pass through the mined route, were hit and disabled. mehrnews.com/x3cyxh @Mehrnews
Live: Iran claims attacks on two super oil tankers
IRGC Public Relations: The IRGC Navy hit and disabled "two deceived, violating supertankers" that were passing through the mined route of the Strait of Hormuz by turning off their navigation systems.
Following US attacks: Iran shells tanker! One dead, several injured
The Iranian military says it targeted a US ship with cruise missiles.
Where does the news lean?
14YES2NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
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