Iran successfully targets shipping on...?July 1
ResolvedOutcome: No$38Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
#Info_IRNA | After Hormuz; Fragile calm in the oil market Following the recent agreement between Iran and the United States, the global energy market has entered a new phase that, although accompanied by a decrease in oil prices and the subsiding of concerns about supply shortages, according to an international oil and energy analyst, this development could not only change the equations of the oil and LNG market, but also redefine the geography of global energy security in the long term. @IRNA_1313 [in reply to: After Hormuz; Fragile Calm in the Oil Market How can the Islamabad Agreement redefine the global energy market? Following the recent agreement between Iran and the United States, the global energy market has entered a new phase that, although accompanied by a decrease in oil prices and the subsiding of concerns about supply shortages, according to an international oil and energy analyst, this development could not only change the equations of the oil and LNG market, but also redefine the geography of global energy security in the long term. @IRNA_1313]
IRGC Navy strikes US military targets in retaliation for attack on Iranian coastal areas • •
Iran attacked a tanker in Hormuz, Trump: "A stupid violation of the ceasefire agreement"
Trump: The Islamic Republic of Iran shot at least four One Way Attack Drones at Ships transversing the Strait of Hormuz. One of the Drones solidly hit the upper deck of a large and very expensive Cargo Carrying Ship. Damage was done, but the Ship was able to proceed on its way. We knocked down three other Drones. Obviously, this is a foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Trump on Truth Social: The Islamic Republic of Iran shot at least four One Way Attack Drones at Ships transversing the Strait of Hormuz. One of the Drones solidly hit the upper deck of a large and very expensive Cargo Carrying Ship. Damage was done, but the Ship was able to proceed on its way. We knocked down three other Drones. Obviously, this is a foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement
The Islamic Republic of Iran shot at least four One Way Attack Drones at Ships transversing the Strait of Hormuz. One of the Drones solidly hit the upper deck of a large and very expensive Cargo Carrying Ship. Damage was done, but the Ship was able to proceed on its way. We knocked down three other Drones. Obviously, this is a foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement. President DONALD J. TRUMP
About an hour ago, several ships defied the Revolutionary Guard's orders, failing to follow the designated route and instead anchoring off the coast of Dubai. The attack appears to be linked to this violation.
Where does the news lean?
0YES9NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
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