Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpileJune 30
ResolvedOutcome: No$5.5Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
24 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Iran says it has rejected the US proposal.
IRGC-affiliated Mehr: America has demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender
Foreign Ministry spokesman said the option of transferring Iran's enriched uranium abroad is rejected @Mehrnews
CHINA IS READY TO RECEIVE HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM FROM IRAN: AP SOURCES ...
China is ready to receive highly enriched uranium from Iran: AP sources
According to sources cited by A.B., China is ready to receive highly enriched uranium from Iran.
China open to taking possession of Iran’s highly enriched uranium: report
Sources tell AP: China is ready to take delivery of highly enriched uranium from Iran
Iranian official to Reuters: • • No agreement has been reached on the details of the nuclear issues.
Trump to Israeli media: Iran has agreed to hand over its uranium stockpile
Axios, citing sources: Proposal to reduce uranium enrichment levels in Iran while keeping it under international monitoring
$20B FOR URANIUM DEAL? • • The U.S. and Iran are negotiating a plan to end the conflict, centered on a U.S. proposal to release $20 billion in frozen funds in exchange for Iran giving up its enriched uranium stockpile. • • Talks may resume Sunday in Islamabad, mediated by Pakistan with support from Egypt and Turkey. • • Iran has nearly 2,000 kg of enriched uranium. A compromise could split it between export and dilution under oversight. The deal also includes a proposed enrichment pause—20 years by the U.S., five by Iran.
He said the Islamic Republic has not accepted a 20-year moratorium on enrichment and has proposed a 5-year moratorium. The enrichment of 400 kilos of uranium inside Iran under the supervision of the Agency has been accepted, but the United States wants the uranium to leave the country.
Iran proposes to suspend uranium enrichment for 5 years
Iran proposes to suspend uranium enrichment for 5 years
Anddddd Iran denies
Trump: Iran has agreed to hand over enriched uranium
ALERT: Trump says Iran has agreed to hand over its enriched uranium supply
AFP: The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization rejects any restrictions on its uranium enrichment program.
Head of Iran's nuclear program says enriching uranium is 'necessary' for peace agreement
Iran’s nuclear agency chief says its right to enrich uranium is ‘necessary’ for U.S. talks
ISNA news agency quotes the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran: The enemies' demands to limit the uranium enrichment program will not be met.
The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran: The US's claim to restrict Iran's uranium enrichment will not be realized.
Iran claims that three points of the "ten-point plan" have been violated and the "basis for negotiation" has been undermined.
Where does the news lean?
30YES25NO7neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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