Grok 4.6 releasedAugust 14

ResolvedOutcome: YesVol$68KResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

YESelonmusk91%match100¢
Excited to release Grok 4.6. With each release, Grok is becoming a more capable digital colleague. • • 4.6 is significantly better at difficult tasks and knowledge work. It combines Opus-class intelligence and polish with very low cost and high speed.
YESelonmusk92%match100¢
Congrats to the @SpaceXAI team on the release of Grok 4.6. • • Grok 4.6 brings frontier intelligence, running and trained on NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 with NVLink to deliver exceptional performance, reliability and lowest token cost.
YESelonmusk91%match100¢
Grok 4.6 is a leap in intelligence and persistence. From completing debugging tasks to building apps from scratch, Grok 4.6 is a fast, dependable, and smart companion. • • Try it now in Grok Build, Cursor, Grok Bot, and the SpaceXAI API!

Where does the news lean?

3YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 91%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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See all outcomes for Grok 4.6 released — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.

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