Grok 4.4 releasedJuly 10
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$18Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Grok 4.5 is now officially available in Grok Build......try it now
Excited to release Grok 4.5 with @SpaceXAI. • • It's an Opus-class model that's fast and low cost. It's a significant step up over any model we've developed so far, including Composer 2.5, and has become the daily driver for many on our team. • • First of many releases. More soon.
YESReuters99%match99¢+1%
Xai: Grok 4.5 is Not Yet Available in EU in Any Spacexai Products or the API Console; EU Availability is Expected in Mid-July
YESReuters99%match99¢+1%
Xai: Grok 4.5 is Available Today in Grok Build, in Cursor on All Plans, and From the Spacexai Console
Try Grok 4.5 today in the SpaceXAI console, Grok Build, and Cursor. We've reset all limits so you can start for free • • Note: Grok 4.5 isn't available in the EU yet. EU availability is expected later this month.
Our internal assessment is that Grok 4.5 is roughly comparable to Opus 4.7, but much faster. The combination of capability, faster speed and lower cost is what makes it competitive. • • We are closing the loop on real-world usefulness, not benchmarks. Hardcore engineers at Tesla & SpaceX find Grok 4.5 genuinely useful, which is what actually matters.
Where does the news lean?
6YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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See all outcomes for Grok 4.4 released — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.