First round outright winner in the SC Special Republican Senate Primary?
ResolvedOutcome: No$4Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
RT @RobertCahalyBREAKING: @trafalgar_group SC GOP 2026 Special Election for US Senate Tracking Poll (7/28-30) 989 Respondents 2.9 MOE 27.0% Darline Graham17.4% @RussellFrySC 17.4% Ralph Norman 15.1% Mark Sanford 8.1% Mark Lynch1.1% Samuel Sam Shepherd 0.9% Duke Buckner 0.4% Mark McBride 0.3% Clark Nielson12.4% Und
How widely anticipated is an #SCSEN special primary runoff? The state party just announced a runoff debate with Newsmax on Aug. 18, a week after the primary.
New Emerson poll of #SCSEN special Republican primary:
Nine candidates have been certified for the #SCSEN special Republican primary, per the state GOP and Election Commission: Duke Buckner, Russell Fry, Darline Graham, Mark Lynch, Mark McBride, Ralph Norman, Glenda Gail Parker, Mark Sanford and Samuel Sam Shepherd
Where does the news lean?
0YES5NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
How did this market resolve?
The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.