Fed rate hikeSeptember Meeting
Open$1.0Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 47% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES47¢
NO54¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The Fed meeting minutes revealed that more than three people were in favor of raising interest rates, but the slowing economy reduced the probability of a September rate hike to 36%.
FED RATE HIKE ODDS BY SEPTEMBER MEETING FALL TO 31% ON POLYMARKET • • The contract is down 12 points on the day, with $2.19M in volume. • • The FOMC held the target range at 3.50-3.75% on July 29 in a 9-3 vote, with Cleveland's Hammack, Minneapolis' Kashkari and Dallas' Logan dissenting in favor of a 25 bps increase. • • The statement said inflation remains elevated relative to the 2% goal, partly reflecting supply shocks in sectors including energy, while activity is expanding at a solid pace and job gains have kept pace with the workforce.
SEPTEMBER FED HIKE LOOKS UNLIKELY • • Baird’s Ross Mayfield says softer core inflation and limited wage pressure strengthen the case for the Fed to hold rates steady in September. • • He sees those trends as the “bedrock for a pause, reducing the likelihood of another rate hike at the next meeting.
MACRO: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is reportedly open to a September rate hike if inflation runs hot, with three FOMC members already dissenting in favor of an immediate hike at the Fed's last meeting.
YESAPws92%match60¢-22%
WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve leaves interest rate unchanged in 9-3 vote, but a hike is widely expected at next meeting in September
Where does the news lean?
4YES4NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Fed rate hike — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.