Will Capital One (COF) beat quarterly earnings?
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$1Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Capital One Earnings Show Positive Signs on Consumer Health -- Barrons.com
$COF Capital One Q2 2025 Earnings • - Net Rev. $15.9B, +27% Y/Y • - Adj EPS $5.81 VS. $5.48 Y/Y • - Total Deposits $484.3B (est $486.46B) • - Provision For Credit Losses $3.0B (est $3.99B) • - Loans Held For Investment $457.2B (est $455.27B) • - Net Charge-Offs $3.6B (est $3.68B)
CAPITAL ONE $COF Q2 NET INCOME $3.0B, $4.73 PER SHARE • • Q2 2026 (vs Q1 2026 unless noted): • - Net income: $3.0B, $4.73 per diluted share • - Adjusted EPS: $5.81, excluding acquisition amortization, Discover integration and Brex integration expenses • - Total net revenue: $15.9B, up 4% • - Provision for credit losses: $3.0B, down $1.1B, including a $662M loan reserve release • - Net charge-offs: $3.6B • - Net interest margin: 8.01%, up 14 bps • - Efficiency ratio: 57.05% • • Net income compares with $2.2B, or $3.34 per share, in Q1 2026, and a net loss of $4.3B, or $(8.58) per share, in Q2 2025, when Capital One closed its Discover acquisition. • • Period-end loans held for investment rose $9.4B to $457.2B. Domestic Card loans rose $5.0B to $259.0B, and Auto loans rose $3.6B to $89.3B. • • CEO Richard Fairbank said the quarter "continue[s] to reflect solid top line growth and strong credit performance," adding the company is "14 months into our integration of Discover, and integration is going well."
Where does the news lean?
3YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
As of market creation, Capital One is estimated to release earnings on July 21, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Capital One’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.75 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Capital One reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $4.75 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Capital One releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.