Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Open$24.0Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 6% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES6¢
NO94¢
as of
What moved the odds?
22 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Clarity Act Blocked, But… U.S. Cryptocurrency Institutionalization Is ‘Ongoing’ [Do Yeri’s Digital Asset Note]
Clarity Act failure may hamper U.S. crypto as industry seeks legal clarity elsewhere
What to Know About the CLARITY Act and What Happens Next • • Main Takeaways • The CLARITY Act is proposed U.S. legislation designed to clarify when digital-asset transactions fall under securities laws, when digital assets qualify as digital commodities, and how responsibility is divided between the SEC and CFTC. • On September 15, 2026, the Senate’s procedural cloture vote to advance consideration of the CLARITY Act failed 49–50, short of the 60 votes required to proceed to debate. • The vote outcome keeps the bill at the procedural stage and leaves open a route to reconsider the motion at a later date. • Although the legislation would apply primarily in the United States, its treatment of digital assets, trading platforms, DeFi, stablecoins and other market activity could influence how crypto markets develop internationally. • • On September 15, 2026, the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, after a procedural cloture motion received 49 votes in favor and 50 against, short of the 60 votes required. • With the procedural vote complete, here’s a look into what the bill aims to do, the issues lawmakers are still debating, what changed in the latest Senate draft, and what the failed vote means for the crypto industry. • What the Senate Voted On • The September 15 vote was a cloture motion, which is a procedural vote on whether to advance consideration of the legislation. If at least 60 senators vote to invoke cloture, the Senate can proceed to debate, with further amendments still possible before a final vote on passage. • In this case, the motion failed 49–50. Senator Thom Tillis subsequently changed his vote to “no for procedural reasons, preserving the ability to seek reconsideration of the motion at a later date. Under Senate rules, a motion to reconsider is generally available only to a senator who voted on the prevailing (winning) side, which in this case was “no. • What the CLARITY Act is Trying to Solve • In the U.S., lawmakers and regulators have wrestled for years with how existing securities and commodities laws should apply to digital assets. One of the central questions is whether a particular transaction involving a digital asset constitutes an investment contract subject to securities laws, and how the underlying asset should be treated when it is subsequently traded. • This distinction matters because a project may initially sell digital assets as part of a capital-raising arrangement that is subject to securities laws, while subsequent transactions in the underlying asset may present different legal and regulatory questions. The CLARITY Act seeks to establish clearer statutory rules for those circumstances and for the markets and intermediaries through which digital assets are traded. • SEC vs. CFTC and a Key Distinction • Two U.S. regulators are central to the debate. • The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) oversees securities markets. • The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates U.S. derivatives markets and has anti-fraud and anti-manipulation authority over spot commodity markets. • What has been missing is a comprehensive federal regime for intermediaries operating spot markets in non-security digital assets. • The CLARITY Act seeks to address that gap. Broadly, transactions that constitute investment contracts would remain subject to securities-law requirements, while qualifying digital commodities and the platforms facilitating their secondary trading could come within a new CFTC-supervised framework. • That distinction matters in practice because it can affect which regulatory requirements apply to a transaction, which regulator has oversight, and the conditions under which platforms can offer or facilitate trading in a digital asset. • What the CLARITY Act Could Change • At its core, the legislation would establish clearer federal pathways for both digital assets and the businesses that facilitate their trading. Transactions involving digital assets that constitute investment contracts would remain within the securities-law framework, while qualifying secondary-market transactions in digital commodities could be conducted through CFTC-regulated intermediaries. • The legislation would also give the CFTC new authority over registered digital commodity exchanges, brokers and dealers operating in spot markets. This is significant because the CFTC currently has substantially less comprehensive authority over spot commodity markets than it has over futures and derivatives. • The result would be a more defined federal rulebook covering areas such as registration, customer asset protection, disclosures, market integrity and conflicts of interest. • New Expectations for Platforms and Projects • Under the proposed framework, digital commodity exchanges, brokers and dealers within the CFTC regime would be subject to registration and requirements covering matters such as customer assets, recordkeeping, conflicts of interest and market integrity. Separate disclosure and disposition requirements would apply to certain issuers, projects and insiders. • The objective is to create regulated pathways for both the primary issuance and secondary trading of digital assets rather than relying principally on enforcement actions and court decisions to establish the boundaries. • Why the Bill Has Been Contentious • The debate centers on the details: what the rules should be, who enforces them, and whether the bill leaves meaningful gaps. • Stablecoin rewards • One of the most contested issues has been whether crypto platforms should be able to offer rewards connected with payment stablecoins. The GENIUS Act already prohibits payment stablecoin issuers themselves from paying interest or yield solely for holding a payment stablecoin, but debate has continued over rewards offered by exchanges and other third parties. • Banks have argued that interest-like rewards could encourage customers to move deposits out of the banking system and potentially reduce the funding available for lending. Crypto industry participants have argued that an overly broad prohibition could restrict competition and prevent legitimate payment, loyalty and other activity-based incentives. • The latest Senate proposal sought to distinguish rewards for simply holding stablecoins from rewards linked to their use. It also included a mechanism allowing the Treasury to intervene if stablecoin activity causes substantial harmful deposit outflows from community banks. The compromise has not ended the disagreement, and banking groups continue to press for tighter restrictions. • Federal framework vs. state authority • Another area of debate is how much enforcement authority should remain with the states alongside the new federal framework. The latest Senate draft included provisions allowing state attorneys general to play a role in enforcing certain requirements, including some of the bill’s ethics provisions. • Supporters of a stronger federal framework argue that nationally consistent rules would reduce fragmentation and give businesses greater certainty. Others want to ensure that states retain meaningful enforcement tools, particularly where fraud, consumer harm or misconduct affects residents directly. • Conflicts of interest for public officials • Conflicts of interest involving public officials were one of the most difficult issues in the final round of negotiations leading up to the vote. The latest proposal strengthened restrictions relating to federal officials and digital-asset interests and gave state attorneys general a role in enforcing certain ethics provisions. • Supporters of the compromise argue that it established meaningful safeguards, while some lawmakers continue to argue that stronger restrictions are needed. The issue was central to the negotiations ahead of the September 15 vote and would remain relevant if lawmakers seek to revive the legislation, given the 60-vote threshold required to invoke cloture. • Where the CLARITY Act Stands Now • The September 15 cloture vote left the CLARITY Act at the procedural stage rather than moving it into Senate debate. The 49–50 result fell short of the 60 votes required to invoke cloture. Senate procedure nevertheless preserves a route to reconsider the motion, so the vote does not formally end the legislation. • If enacted, the legislation would not immediately answer every regulatory question. The SEC, CFTC and other federal agencies would need to implement significant parts of the framework through rulemaking. For crypto businesses, however, the legislation could replace some of the existing regulatory uncertainty with more explicit federal rules governing issuance, trading and market intermediaries. • If the legislation ultimately does not pass, digital assets do not become unregulated. Existing securities, commodities, banking, anti-money laundering and state laws would continue to apply, alongside ongoing regulatory rulemaking and court decisions. The difference is that many of the jurisdictional boundaries the legislation seeks to settle would remain less clearly defined. • Final Thoughts • The CLARITY Act is ultimately an attempt to replace years of regulatory uncertainty with a more defined federal framework for digital asset markets. It addresses not only how different digital-asset transactions are treated, but also who regulates trading platforms, what protections apply to customers, and what obligations projects and intermediaries must meet. • For users, the practical effects could include clearer rules around which assets platforms can offer, what disclosures and safeguards apply, and who is responsible for oversight. For the industry, the central question is whether Congress can establish a framework that provides sufficient regulatory certainty for businesses to operate and innovate while maintaining appropriate market and consumer protections.
JPMorgan says Clarity Act 'not fully dead,' but passage window 'extremely narrow'
White House Digital Asset Lead the CLARITY Act Debacle: “A Failure of American Leadership,”. • The dust has yet to settle on the failed vote in the US Senate that would have advanced the CLARITY Act to a vote for future consideration. The vote was a procedural move for cloture, which would have established sufficient support to avoid a... Read More
What to Know About the CLARITY Act and What Happens Next. • The Senate’s September 15, 2026 cloture vote on the CLARITY Act ended 49–50. Here’s what the bill covers, what changed, and what’s next.
The Clarity Act Fails. Where Do Crypto Stocks Go From Here?
The U.S. Digital Asset Markets Clarity Act failed to pass the Senate, causing cryptocurrency and related stocks to decline.
“Not the End” – Hope Remains that the CLARITY Act Can Be Re-animated. • Digital asset insiders are disappointed by today’s Senate vote on the CLARITY Act, which landed with a thud. The inability to advance crypto market infrastructure legislation is a significant loss for the industry, and most argue it is a loss for the United States. The vote... Read More
The CLARITY Act didn't advance in the Senate today, which was a disappointment. While it's possible bi-partisan conversations continue and it lives to fight another day, we can't wait on Congress anymore. • • The SEC and CFTC have the tools they need to create clear rules under existing authority, and I expect will begin working on this in earnest. • • So clarity is coming to crypto regardless. • • And of course GENIUS is already the law of the land for stablecoins, which is even more permissive on rewards. There were some concessions we made on CLARITY that were tough to swallow, so perhaps it's for the best. • • Crypto can't be uninvented. With clarity emerging through the regulators, we'll continue updating the financial system.
Senate fails to advance Clarity Act in blow to crypto industry ahead of 2026 midterms
Today, the Clarity Act failed to advance in the Senate, a tremendous missed opportunity for American consumers, the digital asset industry, and U.S. competitiveness. • • What it doesn't change: Ripple and $XRP stand on settled ground. • • The Clarity Act may have fallen short, but the need for clear rules has not gone away. And neither has Ripple's commitment to helping build them.
Statement on today’s CLARITY Act vote: • • Today’s outcome is a missed opportunity for American businesses, consumers, and U.S. competitiveness, but the need for clear, predictable rules for digital assets remains as urgent as it ever has. Thank you to the members of Congress and their staff who worked tirelessly to get us this far. We will continue partnering with lawmakers on both sides of the aisle to move a durable framework forward and ensure the U.S. remains the innovation capital of the digital assets industry.
Today's CLARITY vote is a setback, but it does not change the urgent need for clear rules in U.S. digital asset markets. • • Every month without a framework sends capital, builders, & market share elsewhere. • • Chainlink remains at the table, committed to moving clear rules forward.
Crypto's Clarity Act Shows Signs of Life After GOP Concessions
The Clarity Act passed out of @BankingGOP Committee on a bipartisan 15 to 9 vote because my colleagues and I know that we must ensure the United States leads the way on digital asset regulation, and time is running out to secure America’s leadership. Every moment we wait to get this bill to the president’s desk is a moment we risk ceding this leadership to another country. We owe it to American consumers to make sure this industry operates under US regulations and builds on US soil.
LATEST: SEC Chair @SECPaulSAtkins says he anticipates and hopes the CLARITY Act passes the Senate on September 15 and reaches the president's desk.
CLARITY Act Vote Delayed Until September: US Senate Postpones Crypto Market Structure Bill. • The CLARITY Act has become one of the most closely watched pieces of US crypto legislation in 2026 as lawmakers consider how dig
Galaxy Research: Odds of CLARITY Act Passage This Year Decline • • Galaxy Research stated that the likelihood of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, passing in 2026 is declining. Uncertainty surrounding the legislation has prompted the SEC and CFTC to accelerate administrative measures, including rulemaking, interpretive guidance, and regulatory exemptions, to provide clearer rules for digital asset issuance, trading, and market oversight. Galaxy noted that these measures could temporarily fill regulatory gaps while legislation remains stalled, but they lack the legal durability of formal legislation and could be revised or reversed by a future administration. As a result, they cannot replace a long-term regulatory framework established by Congress.
JUST IN: According to Polymarket users, the CLARITY Act has less than a 50% chance of being signed into law by the end of 2026. • • Trump is meeting with senators today to help get the bill passed.
CROWDFUNDINSIDER: "Last Chance" Crypto Supporter Senator Warns About the CLARITY Act Approval Delay
Clarity Act Faces Shrinking Window as Aug. 7 Key Deadline Nears • • The Clarity Act was not signed into law on July 4 as White House adviser Patrick Witt had hoped, and its window to pass Congress before the midterms is narrowing. Three people following the process remain optimistic, with Senate staff still reconciling the Agriculture and Banking Committee versions. The next key date is Aug. 7, 2026, the Senate’s final session day before the summer break and campaign season.
Where does the news lean?
76YES73NO100neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.