Will Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings?
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$8Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
$CAT Caterpillar Q2 2026 Earnings • - Adj EPS $8.17 (est $6.17) • - Rev. 20.54B (est $19.01B) • - Machinery, Power & Energy Rev. $19.58B (est $18.13B) • - Sees FY 26 Sales Mid-To-High Teens, Saw Low Double Digits • - Sees Yr Adj Oper Profit Margin Near Bottom Of Target Range
CATERPILLAR $CAT JUST REPORTED EARNINGS • • - EPS of $8.17 beating expectations of $6.17 • - Revenue of $20.50B beating expectations of $19.34B • - Backlog: $72.1B • • FY guidance: • • - Sales & revenue growth expected in the mid-to-high teens vs. 2025 • - Adjusted operating margin expected near the bottom of the annual target range, excluding IEEPA tariff recoveries
$CAT - CATERPILLAR RAISES OUTLOOK AFTER RECORD Q2 BEAT • • Results • • Adj. EPS: $8.17 vs. $6.17 est. • Revenue: $20.0B vs. $19.33B est. • Backlog: $72.1B • Record Quarter: First time Caterpillar generated over $20B in quarterly sales and revenue. • • Guidance • • FY Sales & Revenue: Mid-to-high teens growth vs. 2025 • FY Adj. Operating Margin: Expected near the bottom of the annual target range (excluding IEEPA tariff recoveries)
$CAT - CATERPILLAR POSTS RECORD QUARTER, CRUSHES EARNINGS ESTIMATES • • Results • • • Adj. EPS: $8.17 vs. $6.17 est. (beat) • • EPS: $7.77 • • Revenue: $20.50B vs. $19.34B est. (beat) • • Record Sales: First quarter in company history with more than $20B in revenue. • • Restructuring: Costs increased due to the divestiture of certain non-U.S. entities.
Where does the news lean?
4YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
As of market creation, Caterpillar is estimated to release earnings on August 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Caterpillar’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $6.20 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Caterpillar reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $6.20 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Caterpillar releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.