Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or AfD?
Resolved$20Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved. Final market pricing put CDU at 100%, as of .
CDU100¢
AfD0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
AfD wins ahead of SPD: After the state elections: Need for discussion in Berlin
The Left Party won the Berlin House of Deputies elections for the first time, receiving 25.7% of the vote, the capital's electoral commission reported. The Christian Democratic Union of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz came in second, receiving 18.8% of the vote. The right-wing opposition party Alternative for Germany came in third with 16.3%. The Greens followed with 14.3%.
Following the elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Friedrich Merz describes the results as disastrous and calls for an emergency meeting. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party advances and comes in second in Berlin.
The CDU may fail to enter the state parliament for the first time.
Al Arabiya correspondent Ragheda Bahnam: The Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Left Party victories in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin indicate widespread discontent with traditional parties in Germany. Merz considers the results disastrous for his party.
Where does the news lean?
3CDU7AfD6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).