Bank of Mexico Decision in September?25 bps decrease

OpenVol$12KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES5¢
NO95¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOdbws.io93%match94¢+1%
Mexico central bank signals more rate holds ahead
NOReuters93%match94¢+1%
Banxico Governing Board Estimates That It Will Be Appropriate to Maintain the Reference Rate at Its Current Level - Minutes
NOReuters92%match91¢+4%
Banxico: Looking Ahead, the Board Estimates It Will Be Appropriate to Maintain the Rate at Its Current Level
NOReuters95%match90¢+6%
Reuters Poll– 34 of 35 Analysts Expect Mexico’s Central Bank to Hold Key Rate at 6.50%; One Forecasts a 25-Basis-Point Cut

Where does the news lean?

1YES5NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

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