Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
Open$58Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 92% chance that this market resolves OpenAI, as of .
OpenAI92¢
Anthropic9¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Anthropic Considers ‘Largest IPO Ever’ Surpassing SpaceX… Valuation Overtakes OpenAI
Anthropic Revenue Run Rate Hits $65 Billion. The Claude Maker Is Outpacing OpenAI Ahead of Its IPO.. • Anthropic filed its prospectus with the SEC in June and has since begun preliminary meetings with potential investors.
Anthropic Eyes $2 Trillion Valuation in October IPO: Is the AI Investment Boom Entering Bubble Territory?. • Introduction Anthropic’s projected October 2026 IPO could value the Claude AI maker at $2 trillion or more, potentially the larg
$11.5 billion in revenue in one quarter: Anthropic has multiplied its revenue by 14 in one year (and now surpasses OpenAI)
Anthropic’s $1.2T secondary valuation jumps 550% in a year, overtaking OpenAI
Where does the news lean?
12OpenAI1Anthropic4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve OpenAI?
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for December 31, 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
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If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic's valuation is equal to OpenAI's valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.