Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
Open$13Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 10% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES10¢
NO90¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOFinancialJuice99%match62¢+45%
S&P on US credit conditions: policy risk remains following US tariff ruling S&P on US Credit Conditions: We don't expect a substantial impact on our ratings outlook.
NOFirst Squawk98%match62¢+45%
S&P ON U.S. CREDIT CONDITIONS: DOES NOT EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON ITS RATINGS OUTLOOK.
YESFirst Squawk98%match41¢-76%
FITCH ON U.S.: EXPECTS CONGRESS TO SHOW LIMITED APPETITE FOR FISCAL CONSOLIDATION IN FY27 APPROPRIATIONS AHEAD OF NOVEMBER 2026 MIDTERM ELECTIONS.
YESFirst Squawk98%match41¢-76%
FITCH ON U.S.: EXPECTS DEFICITS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND SEES RISKS TO ITS BASELINE PROJECTIONS.
NO*Walter Bloomberg99%match62¢+45%
US DEBT RATING STABLE, SECOND DOWNGRADE UNLIKELY – FITCH Fitch says a second U.S. credit downgrade is unlikely soon, as the 2023 cut to AA+ already reflects current fiscal pressures. The stable outlook means no downgrade is expected in the next one to two years, with the…
Where does the news lean?
12YES5NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.