Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Open$1.1Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 77% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES77¢
NO24¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Several Federal Reserve officials have signaled a rate hike, with the New York Fed president stating that a rate hike later this year might be appropriate.
Federal Reserve's Williams: Another rate hike may be needed later in 2026
YESNews97%match92¢-16%
*FED'S WILLIAMS: ONE MORE RATE HIKE MAY BE NEEDED IN LATE 2026
FED OFFICIALS SIGNAL ANOTHER RATE HIKE • • Fed officials Anna Paulson and John Williams say another rate hike may be needed as inflation remains stubbornly above target. • • Paulson said “modest further tightening” could be warranted, while Williams said another hike by year-end appears reasonable. • • With the economy and labor market remaining solid, policymakers have more room to focus on inflation, reinforcing the Fed’s increasingly hawkish stance.
[UPDATE] New York Fed’s Williams says it's 'reasonable' to expect another rate hike by year-end (first reported at 2026-09-24T08:29:26+0000)
FED’S BARR SIGNALS MORE RATE HIKES AHEAD • • Fed Governor Michael Barr says further rate hikes will likely be needed to bring inflation back to target after last week’s 25bp increase. • • Barr said the Fed had been “out of position” before the latest hike. • • The Fed’s dot plot reinforces the hawkish message: 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more hike in 2026, with four projecting two.
Where does the news lean?
16YES2NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.