AI bubble burstDecember 31, 2025
ResolvedOutcome: No$203Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
14 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NOFirst Squawk98%match99¢+1%
US Tech BUBBLE is seen as the biggest THREAT to the market in 2026: 57% of investors surveyed by Deutsche Bank cite a potential plunge in tech valuations if AI enthusiasm fades as the top market risk. The next major risks cited are a loss of Federal Reserve independence and…
NOBloomberg98%match99¢+1%
From AI to Labubus, 2026 could be a year of reckoning.
NOBloomberg98%match99¢+1%
The queue for power-intensive customers looking to tap into New York’s energy grid has surged as the boom for AI and growth in large-scale manufacturing drive electricity demand, according to one of the state’s utility providers
NOzerohedge98%match99¢+1%
AI Bubble(s)? Deutsche Highlights Red Flags, Green Flags, & What Could Go Wrong
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match99¢+1%
DEEPWATER SEES AI BULL RUN EXTENDING INTO 2026 Deepwater Asset Management expects the Nasdaq to rise about 10% in 2026, driven by another strong year for AI. The firm sees the market in year three of a five-year AI bull cycle and says current “bubble” concerns help keep…
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match99¢+1%
IS THERE AN AI BUBBLE? DEUTSCHE BANK SAYS YES — BUT MULTIPLE, AND STILL EARLY Deutsche Bank’s central 2026 question: Is AI in a bubble? The bank argues any bubble remains in its early stage, similar to dot-com after Greenspan’s 1996 warning, with years of gains still possible.…
NOBloomberg98%match99¢+1%
The AI Boom Is Absorbing Everything
NOunusual_whales98%match98¢+2%
[Replying to @unusual_whales] HSBC forecasts cumulative infrastructure costs at ≈ $792 billion from late 2025 to 2030, and now rising toward $1.4 trillion over the next eight years. Read more: >
NOReuters98%match97¢+3%
AI industry not in a bubble, but stocks could see correction, SK chief says
YESReuters98%match3¢-100%
AI bubble to be short-lived, rebound stronger, NTT DATA chief says
NOCNBC98%match97¢+3%
Who cares if AI is a bubble? Citi says stay long because riding manias can be 'quite profitable'
NOReuters Business98%match97¢+3%
Just how big is the AI investment wave?
NOReuters98%match97¢+3%
AI industry not in a bubble, but stocks could see correction, SK chief says
NOReuters97%match97¢+3%
An unprecedented spending spree on AI is reshaping global technology and drawing Wall Street’s focus to a handful of giants, but it also creates risks of a financial bubble and questions about the circular financing deals propping up valuations
Where does the news lean?
1YES13NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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