When will Tesla release Optimus?June 30
ResolvedOutcome: No$96Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Tesla showed off its first tendon-driven hand in October 2024, but demos of Optimus grasping things with integrated tendon-driven hands remain scarce. • • Here's an instance of grasping action. The forearm packaging is impressively compact. • • Notice how the hand springs back after leaving the bottle. This could be the sandwich flexure connecting the finger joints (described in Tesla patents), giving that spring-back. Elon said they've already changed this design and it "didn't actually work." This is probably not the very latest hand.
Tesla China CEO Says Shanghai Gigafactory Is "Golden Key" To Optimus Robot Production
Optimus v3 didn’t arrive as scheduled. • • But someone made a video imagining a “household butler” version of Optimus: • • Cooking, folding laundry, carrying shopping bags, dancing… • • Feels more like a new member of the family. • • Is this what we want? • •
NOBenzinga98%match95¢+5%
[Replying to @Teslaconomics] @Teslaconomics > Tesla plans to unveil Optimus Gen 3 in Q1 and the first production line is already underway, with production planned before the end of 2026. The team is aiming to build a capacity of 1M Tesla Bots per year!
Where does the news lean?
0YES4NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
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