Jimmy Lai releasedJune 30, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoVol$365KResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOdbws.io99%match93¢+8%
MEDIA-HK police enter ex-headquarters of Jimmy Lai-owned Apple Daily to confiscate assets, TVB reports
NOasia.nikkei.com99%match93¢+8%
Hong Kong bookstore owner, staff reportedly arrested over Jimmy Lai bio
NOnews.sky.com99%match93¢+8%
Hong Kong booksellers arrested for 'seditious publications' as Jimmy Lai's biography seized

Where does the news lean?

0YES4NO2neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count. Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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