European country agrees to give Ukraine security guaranteeJune 30
ResolvedOutcome: No$177Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Al Arabiya correspondent Salam Kayali: Most European countries now support having a negotiator on their behalf to enter into direct talks with Russia regarding ending the war in Ukraine and providing guarantees that it will not be repeated.
NOzerohedge98%match67¢+49%
*US LINKS UKRAINE SECURITY GUARANTEES TO CEDING TERRITORY: FT
NOCGTN Europe99%match86¢+16%
European and US allies of Ukraine on Tuesday agreed "robust" security guarantees for Kyiv to come into force after an eventual ceasefire with Russia – guarantees that would see the United States lead a truce monitoring mechanism, French President Emmanuel Macron said. Macron, UK…
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match14¢-100%
Europe and the U.S. presented a united front for Ukraine in Paris, hailing security guarantees with American backing and laying out a detailed plan for bolstering Kyiv long-term including deploying British and French troops after a ceasefire. Based.
Where does the news lean?
3YES4NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the relevant European country to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the relevant European country must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations. Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked. Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.
Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.
A qualifying agreement must be jointly announced and finalized, and take the form of a treaty, executive agreement, memorandum of understanding, joint declaration, or equivalent written instrument. Announcements which are statements of intent, contingent, exploratory, or otherwise not indicative of a formalized policy will not count.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Qualifying European countries include: Albania; Andorra; Armenia; Austria; Azerbaijan; Belgium; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Bulgaria; Croatia; Cyprus; Czechia; Denmark; Estonia; Finland; France; Georgia; Germany; Greece; Hungary; Iceland; Ireland; Italy; Latvia; Liechtenstein; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Malta; Moldova; Monaco; Montenegro; Netherlands; North Macedonia; Norway; Poland; Portugal; Romania; San Marino; Serbia; Slovakia; Slovenia; Spain; Sweden; Switzerland; Ukraine; United Kingdom.
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