Will Yoon be sentenced to prison before 2027?
Resolved1as of
This hub tracks 1 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
No directional matched news signals are available across this event yet.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yoon Suk Yeol is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for charges related to the 2024 South Korean political crisis, including but not limited to allegations of insurrection, abuse of power, or other criminal acts stemming from his martial law declaration and related subsequent actions by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through 2026 regardless of whether Yoon's initial sentencing includes prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.