Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
Resolved1as of
This hub tracks 1 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
16 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
#CARTOON | The Workers' Party (PT) officially announces Lula's candidacy for President for a more just and sovereign Brazil
80-year-old Lula runs for re-election: He will never allow other countries to invade Brazil and kidnap the president.
Lula pledges to defend Brazil's sovereignty by announcing his candidacy for re-election Brazil's president has announced his candidacy for the country's presidential election in October, presenting himself as an experienced leader capable of guiding the country in times of global instability. #IRNA_World @IRNA_1313
Brazil's ruling party nominates incumbent Lula for president, focusing on national defense; pressure from the Trump administration worsens relations.
Incumbent Lula has announced his candidacy for re-election in the Brazilian presidential election in October.
Incumbent Lula has announced his candidacy for re-election in Brazil's presidential election in October.
Brazil's ruling party nominates incumbent Lula for presidential election, focusing on national defense.
Brazilian President Lula runs as Workers' Party presidential candidate… seeking fourth term.
BREAKING NEWS
"I want to fight against old age": At 80, Lula announces his candidacy for a 4th and final term as President of Brazil
"I want to fight against old age": at 80, Lula announces his candidacy for a fourth and final term as president of Brazil
Brazilian President Lula has registered as a presidential candidate with the Supreme Electoral Court.
Lula Convention 2026 - Workers' Party
The Workers' Party (PT) officially nominates Lula for President for a more just and sovereign Brazil The National Convention of Brazil's Workers' Party (PT) will officially nominate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva this Sunday for the October elections.
Brazil: At 80, Lula launches his campaign for a fourth term
In Brazil, Lula is seeking a fourth term, with Trump's shadow looming.
What is this event about?
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.