When will Russia capture Kostyantynivka?

ResolvedOutcomes17as of

This hub tracks 17 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

16 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

August 15, 2026Ukrainian Media92%match24¢-100%
The occupiers have advanced near Kostyantynivka and Zaliznychne, increasing their control by almost 4.8 sq. km Russian occupation forces have advanced near Kostyantynivka in the Kramatorsk district of Donetsk region and Zaliznychne in the Polohiv district of Zaporizhia region, according to data from the DeepState OSINT project. "The enemy has advanced near Kostyantynivka and in Zaliznychne," says a message distributed on the project's Telegram channel on Saturday. ...
Russian troops are trying to gain a foothold in Kostyantynivka in the Donetsk region and are pressing the city with infantry from the flanks, DeepState analysts reported yesterday. One of the Russians' goals is to occupy part of the city between Illinivka and Novodmytrivka in order to cut off Ukrainian units defending Chasiv Yar. The Russian army is also using KABs, drones, and artillery in Druzhkivka and Alekseevo-Druzhkivka. What is happening in Kostyantynivka now, how realistic is it for Ukrainian soldiers to go there now, and whether they are talking about surrounding the city — the military told Suspilne. Photo: Suspilne News/Taras Ibragimov
Russian troops are trying to gain a foothold in Kostyantynivka in the Donetsk region and are pressing the city with infantry from the flanks, DeepState analysts reported yesterday. One of the Russians' goals is to occupy part of the city between Illinivka and Novodmytrivka in order to cut off Ukrainian units defending Chasiv Yar. The Russian army is also using KABs, drones, and artillery in Druzhkivka and Alekseevo-Druzhkivka. What is happening in Kostyantynivka now, how realistic is it for Ukrainian soldiers to go there now, and whether they are talking about surrounding the city — the military told Suspilne. Photo: Suspilne News/Taras Ibragimov
July 31, 2026Russian Media94%match20¢-100%
The victory in Kostyantynivka lasted exactly 24 hours. The Ukrainian Armed Forces filmed a pompous video with a flag in the city—the very next day, the same soldiers recorded a new video, this time from captivity. Yesterday they were saying that "the city was under control." Today, they are thanking the Russian Armed Forces for saving their lives, throwing away the Ukrainian flag and picking up the Russian one. The betrayal crept up faster than the previous report could load. For the sake of this PR stunt, the Ukrainian Armed Forces sacrificed almost an entire battalion—most of the participants were eliminated, the remainder were captured, according to soldiers from the 4th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces. The fighting for Kostyantynivka began in October 2025. It was liberated on July 3, 2026. Learn more about the advance of the Russian army on our operational map. Photos and videos not loading? Read us in MAX.
July 19, 2026Russian Media94%match2¢-100%
The victory in Kostyantynivka lasted exactly 24 hours. The Ukrainian Armed Forces filmed a pompous video with a flag in the city—the very next day, the same soldiers recorded a new video, this time from captivity. Yesterday they were saying that "the city was under control." Today, they are thanking the Russian Armed Forces for saving their lives, throwing away the Ukrainian flag and picking up the Russian one. The betrayal crept up faster than the previous report could load. For the sake of this PR stunt, the Ukrainian Armed Forces sacrificed almost an entire battalion—most of the participants were eliminated, the remainder were captured, according to soldiers from the 4th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces. The fighting for Kostyantynivka began in October 2025. It was liberated on July 3, 2026. Learn more about the advance of the Russian army on our operational map. Photos and videos not loading? Read us in MAX.
September 30, 2026alarabytv99%match73¢+37%
Russia is attempting to advance on several fronts in Ukraine, and street fighting is raging in the city of Kostyantynivka. @Mohamadgamloush @zaouimed
June 30, 2026alarabytv99%match100¢
Russia is attempting to advance on several fronts in Ukraine, and street fighting is raging in the city of Kostyantynivka. @Mohamadgamloush @zaouimed
July 31, 2026alarabytv99%match45¢-100%
Russia is attempting to advance on several fronts in Ukraine, and street fighting is raging in the city of Kostyantynivka. @Mohamadgamloush @zaouimed
March 31, 2026CGTN Europe98%match19¢-100%
The Russian Armed Forces liberated Krasnoznamenka in the Dnipropetrovsk region — Ministry of Defense
June 30, 2026CGTN Europe98%match25¢+300%
The Russian Armed Forces liberated Krasnoznamenka in the Dnipropetrovsk region — Ministry of Defense
April 30, 2026CGTN Europe98%match55¢+82%
The Russian Armed Forces liberated Krasnoznamenka in the Dnipropetrovsk region — Ministry of Defense
March 31, 2026WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match42¢-100%
Russia is preparing a major spring offensive on Ukrainian territory.
December 31, 2026CGTN Europe98%match91¢+10%
The "Orekhnik" missile system will be put on combat duty in Russia before the end of the year, said Putin.
December 31Faytuks News98%match88¢+14%
A month ago Russia claimed to have captured Kupiansk. Today, the city has almost entirely been liberated and a number of Russian soldiers are surrounded. This is the result of exceptional soldiering by the 2nd Khartia Corps of the Ukrainian National Guard (and others).
March 31, 2026Faytuks News98%match17¢+488%
A month ago Russia claimed to have captured Kupiansk. Today, the city has almost entirely been liberated and a number of Russian soldiers are surrounded. This is the result of exceptional soldiering by the 2nd Khartia Corps of the Ukrainian National Guard (and others).
March 31, 2026POLITICO98%match83¢-100%
How Russia keeps raising an army to replace its dead

What is this event about?

This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.

Related events