When will Russia capture all of Kupiansk?
Open6as of
Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 6% across 6 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
12 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
A counter-attack in Kupiansk is promising, but the overall outlook is not
A counter-attack in Kupiansk is promising, but the overall outlook is not
A counter-attack in Kupiansk is promising, but the overall outlook is not
Ukrainian Military Claims Control of Almost Entire Kupiansk
Ukrainian Military Claims Control of Almost Entire Kupiansk
Ukrainian Military Claims Control of Almost Entire Kupiansk
RUSSIAN TROOPS CONTROL ALL OF KUPIANSK - IFX CITES RUSSIAN MILITARY
RUSSIAN TROOPS CONTROL ALL OF KUPIANSK - IFX CITES RUSSIAN MILITARY
RUSSIAN TROOPS CONTROL ALL OF KUPIANSK - RUSSIAN MILITARY
RUSSIAN TROOPS CONTROL ALL OF KUPIANSK - RUSSIAN MILITARY
RUSSIAN TROOPS CONTROL ALL OF KUPIANSK - RUSSIAN MILITARY
RUSSIAN TROOPS CONTROL ALL OF KUPIANSK - RUSSIAN MILITARY
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.
Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.