When will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar?
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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 25% across 2 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Putin has set his military the task of capturing Donbas by December 31 - Palisa The Kremlin has set the military leadership the task of reaching the administrative borders of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions by December 31 of this year, said Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Pavlo Palisa. As reported by an Interfax-Ukraine correspondent, he said this during a meeting with journalists.
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The occupiers have advanced in Chasov Yar and near Kostyantynivka, capturing a total of 2 sq km – DeepState The Russian occupiers have increased the area of control over Ukrainian territory in the area of the city of Chasov Yar and near the village of Illinivka, Kramatorsk district, Donetsk region, on the Kostyantynivka direction of the front, reports the OSINT project DeepState. "The enemy has advanced near Illinivka and in Chasov Yar," the project's Telegram channel reported on Sunday.
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The occupiers have advanced in Chasov Yar and near Kostyantynivka, capturing a total of 2 sq km – DeepState The Russian occupiers have increased the area of control over Ukrainian territory in the area of the city of Chasov Yar and near the village of Illinivka, Kramatorsk district, Donetsk region, on the Kostyantynivka direction of the front, reports the OSINT project DeepState. "The enemy has advanced near Illinivka and in Chasov Yar," the project's Telegram channel reported on Sunday.
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What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, (48.589446° N, 37.831430° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Chasiv Yar will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:
- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain
- Assessed Russian Advances
Shading under the following layers will not qualify:
- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas
- Claimed Russian Territory
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.