Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

OpenOutcomes1as of

Market pricing makes Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? the favorite at 13%, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

YESaxios92%match23¢-43%
NEW: McConnell discharged from rehab center, but his Senate return remains unclear • •
NOfoxnews92%match77¢+13%
BREAKING: Sen. Mitch McConnell is heading home after being discharged from rehab, but it's doubtful he returns to the Senate before the fall, @ChadPergram reports. • • “On the advice of my doctors, I’ll maintain an intensive regimen of physical therapy from home during the state work period, and I’ll continue to engage with my staff and colleagues on important Senate business,” McConnell said in a statement.
NOnytimes.com91%match76¢+14%
Live: Senator Mitch McConnell’s office announced that he has been discharged from a rehabilitation center today after medical treatment and recovery from a June 14 fall that has kept him away from Capitol Hill for nearly two months. The Kentucky Republican said in a statement that he has returned home and plans to maintain an “intensive regimen of physical therapy” there during the upcoming Senate summer recess.
NOnytimes.com94%match68¢+28%
Why Mitch McConnell Isn’t Giving Up His Senate Seat
YESNBC Reporter93%match31¢-58%
New: Kentucky governor tells Mitch McConnell to prove he can serve or ‘resign†from Senate • • In letters to McConnell & Thune, Andy Beshear says he needs to "verbally address the people of Kentucky" or have his health investigated—and perhaps get replaced. • •
YESnbcnews.com91%match28¢-54%
Live: McConnell releases health update, saying he’s not ready to return to work yet
YESnytimes.com94%match28¢-54%
Live: Senator Mitch McConnell, who has been hospitalized for six weeks, will not be returning to the Senate this week as lawmakers work toward their August recess. In a new statement from his office, McConnell, Republican of Kentucky, also said that he would not be at Fancy Farm, an annual state political picnic that he has attended for more than four decades.
NOpolitico.com99%match70¢+24%
McConnell says he intends to return to the Senate — but not yet
YESMS NOW Reporter99%match27¢-52%
McConnell says, on the advice of his doctors, that he's not yet ready to return to the Senate.
YESalhadath99%match27¢-52%
"He was found unconscious in his home before being taken to the hospital"... The Daily Beast reveals details of the health condition of prominent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell Neighbors of US Senator Mitch McConnell have revealed worrying details about the mysterious health crisis the Kentucky Republican senator is experiencing. His deteriorating health has entered its first month amid a scarcity of updates from his team. According to The Daily Beast, one of McConnell's neighbors in Washington said the 84-year-old senator appeared to be in poor health even before June 14, the day he was found unconscious in his home before being taken to the hospital. The neighbor explained that he had seen McConnell days earlier sitting slumped in a wheelchair while members of his staff moved him. He said: "I got a clear look at his face. He was pale, staring at The void and his mouth open" Another neighbor who lives on the same street said she saw McConnell being taken to an ambulance on June 14 while his crew members appeared "clearly distraught" and "crying" She added: "When he came out, I actually wondered if he was dead. He didn't look well. He was unconscious with his eyes closed and oxygen tubes were attached to his nose." She continued: "I knew from his aides going in and out so often that it was serious. There weren't many sirens, and that's what caught my attention."
NOScripps Reporter99%match75¢+16%
MCCONNELL says he was, however, “briefly unconscious” and dealt with “a mild case of pneumonia” • • “I still have unfinished business to complete on your behalf, and I have every intention of finishing the job you elected me to do.” • • Adds he’s working to get back to the Senate floor
NOCNN Reporter99%match74¢+18%
McConnell, in his first update about his health, says he won’t return to the Senate yet. “My doctors have confirmed that I didn’t break any bones or suffer a concussion. I didn’t have a heart attack or a stroke. I don’t have any tumors or hemorrhages. But I was briefly unconscious and was taken to the hospital. While receiving excellent care over the past several weeks, I’ve also had to deal with a mild case of pneumonia,” he says.
NOPunchbowl Reporter99%match51¢+71%
MCCONNELL releases a photo - and statement. • • “To my fellow Kentuckians – • • “When you elected me to a seventh term and made me our Commonwealth’s longest serving Senator, you did so trusting that I’d keep showing up to fight for you every day. And over the past several weeks, Elaine and I have appreciated both your well wishes and your honest questions about what was keeping me away from the Senate. • • “You all know how folks of my generation often hesitate to share the vulnerability that comes with growing older. Even in the public eye, I feel that same instinct – I can’t help it. • • “But at the same time, I’ve had more than my share of experience with physical vulnerabilities. Surviving childhood polio meant spending my entire life with mobility challenges. They haven’t exactly gotten easier to manage with age. And last month, I took a fall which landed me in the hospital. • • “My doctors have confirmed that I didn’t break any bones or suffer a concussion. I didn’t have a heart attack or a stroke. I don’t have any tumors or hemorrhages. But I was briefly unconscious and was taken to the hospital. While receiving excellent care over the past several weeks, I’ve also had to deal with a mild case of pneumonia. • • “I can assure you that I’ve been a good patient. At my age, I tend to do what my doctors tell me to do. I’ve submitted to every test they can think of to help figure out what caused this incident. And I’m continuing to do everything they ask to speed my recovery. In fact, with signs of continued progress, I’ve been able to move from hospital care to a rehabilitation center where I’ll keep regaining my strength. • • “As much as it frustrates me, this process takes time. And on the advice of my doctors, I won’t be able to return to the Senate floor to vote quite yet. But rest assured that, in the meantime, I’m not taking a break from the Senate business that matters to you. I’ve been working closely with my legislative staff on current issues, and with my Kentucky team who help me provide timely constituent services across our Commonwealth. I’ve also been keeping in touch with my Senate colleagues on the appropriations process, midterm politics, and everything in between. • • “You’re right to expect your representatives to work hard for you. And part of my decision to retire at the end of my term this coming January was being honest about the demands of Senate work. But I still have unfinished business to complete on your behalf, and I have every intention of finishing the job you elected me to do. • • “I’ll keep working hard to get back on the Senate floor as soon as possible. And I’ll keep you posted on the progress of my recovery. Until then, I’m so grateful for your prayers and well wishes.”
NONewsNation Reporter99%match51¢+71%
UPDATE from Sen. Mitch McConnell regarding his hospitalization and recovery: • • “To my fellow Kentuckians – • • “When you elected me to a seventh term and made me our Commonwealth’s longest serving Senator, you did so trusting that I’d keep showing up to fight for you every day. And over the past several weeks, Elaine and I have appreciated both your well wishes and your honest questions about what was keeping me away from the Senate. • • “You all know how folks of my generation often hesitate to share the vulnerability that comes with growing older. Even in the public eye, I feel that same instinct – I can’t help it. • • “But at the same time, I’ve had more than my share of experience with physical vulnerabilities. Surviving childhood polio meant spending my entire life with mobility challenges. They haven’t exactly gotten easier to manage with age. And last month, I took a fall which landed me in the hospital. • • “My doctors have confirmed that I didn’t break any bones or suffer a concussion. I didn’t have a heart attack or a stroke. I don’t have any tumors or hemorrhages. But I was briefly unconscious and was taken to the hospital. While receiving excellent care over the past several weeks, I’ve also had to deal with a mild case of pneumonia. • • “I can assure you that I’ve been a good patient. At my age, I tend to do what my doctors tell me to do. I’ve submitted to every test they can think of to help figure out what caused this incident. And I’m continuing to do everything they ask to speed my recovery. In fact, with signs of continued progress, I’ve been able to move from hospital care to a rehabilitation center where I’ll keep regaining my strength. • • “As much as it frustrates me, this process takes time. And on the advice of my doctors, I won’t be able to return to the Senate floor to vote quite yet. But rest assured that, in the meantime, I’m not taking a break from the Senate business that matters to you. I’ve been working closely with my legislative staff on current issues, and with my Kentucky team who help me provide timely constituent services across our Commonwealth. I’ve also been keeping in touch with my Senate colleagues on the appropriations process, midterm politics, and everything in between. • • “You’re right to expect your representatives to work hard for you. And part of my decision to retire at the end of my term this coming January was being honest about the demands of Senate work. But I still have unfinished business to complete on your behalf, and I have every intention of finishing the job you elected me to do. • • “I’ll keep working hard to get back on the Senate floor as soon as possible. And I’ll keep you posted on the progress of my recovery. Until then, I’m so grateful for your prayers and well wishes.” • • ### • • From the Office of the Attending Physician: • • “Senator McConnell has experienced several falls throughout the year that have been attributed to his post-polio condition. He was admitted to the hospital four weeks ago after falling at home and sustaining minor injuries. • • “A comprehensive evaluation by a multidisciplinary team determined that he had no fractures, cardiac abnormalities, stroke, tumor, or hemorrhage. Early in his hospitalization, he developed pneumonia, which responded rapidly to antibiotic treatment. • • “The remainder of his hospital stay focused on physical therapy and strategies to reduce his risk of future falls. He has been medically cleared to continue fully participating in his intensive physical therapy program.”
NOFox Reporter99%match50¢+74%
McConnell: “To my fellow Kentuckians – • • “When you elected me to a seventh term and made me our Commonwealth’s longest serving Senator, you did so trusting that I’d keep showing up to fight for you every day. And over the past several weeks, Elaine and I have appreciated both your well wishes and your honest questions about what was keeping me away from the Senate. • • “You all know how folks of my generation often hesitate to share the vulnerability that comes with growing older. Even in the public eye, I feel that same instinct – I can’t help it. • • “But at the same time, I’ve had more than my share of experience with physical vulnerabilities. Surviving childhood polio meant spending my entire life with mobility challenges. They haven’t exactly gotten easier to manage with age. And last month, I took a fall which landed me in the hospital. • • “My doctors have confirmed that I didn’t break any bones or suffer a concussion. I didn’t have a heart attack or a stroke. I don’t have any tumors or hemorrhages. But I was briefly unconscious and was taken to the hospital. While receiving excellent care over the past several weeks, I’ve also had to deal with a mild case of pneumonia. • • “I can assure you that I’ve been a good patient. At my age, I tend to do what my doctors tell me to do. I’ve submitted to every test they can think of to help figure out what caused this incident. And I’m continuing to do everything they ask to speed my recovery. In fact, with signs of continued progress, I’ve been able to move from hospital care to a rehabilitation center where I’ll keep regaining my strength. • • “As much as it frustrates me, this process takes time. And on the advice of my doctors, I won’t be able to return to the Senate floor to vote quite yet. But rest assured that, in the meantime, I’m not taking a break from the Senate business that matters to you. I’ve been working closely with my legislative staff on current issues, and with my Kentucky team who help me provide timely constituent services across our Commonwealth. I’ve also been keeping in touch with my Senate colleagues on the appropriations process, midterm politics, and everything in between. • • “You’re right to expect your representatives to work hard for you. And part of my decision to retire at the end of my term this coming January was being honest about the demands of Senate work. But I still have unfinished business to complete on your behalf, and I have every intention of finishing the job you elected me to do. • • “I’ll keep working hard to get back on the Senate floor as soon as possible. And I’ll keep you posted on the progress of my recovery. Until then, I’m so grateful for your prayers and well wishes.”
NOReuters99%match41¢+112%
U.S. Senator McConnell: I’ll Keep Working Hard to Get Back on the Senate Floor as Soon as Possible
YESalhadath99%match48¢-73%
"With his absence from the next Senate session anticipated," CNN publishes video documenting Senator Mitch McConnell being taken to an ambulance after a health issue that has kept him absent for a month.
YESalarabiya99%match48¢-73%
"With his absence from the next Senate session anticipated," CNN publishes video documenting Senator Mitch McConnell being taken to an ambulance after a health issue that has kept him absent for a month.
YESdbws.io99%match69¢-81%
Mitch McConnell’s health absence a mystery with US Senate poised to return
YEStime.com99%match64¢-80%
Kentucky Governor Urges McConnell to Address His Health and Fitness for Office
YESfortune.com99%match65¢-80%
Mitch McConnell’s Senate seat could sit empty for months—and a fast-approaching deadline is why
YESspiegel.de99%match55¢-76%
Mitch McConnell: Top Republican in hospital for weeks - rumors about his health
YESaxios99%match53¢-75%
Senate GOP leaders say they've spoken with Sen. Mitch McConnell in recent days, as speculation swirls online among MAGA influencers about the Kentucky Republican's health.
YESaxios99%match57¢-77%
Inside the McConnell health rumor mill
YESwashingtonpost.com98%match72¢-82%
As health rumors swirl, GOP leaders say they’ve spoken with McConnell
YESCNBC Reporter99%match72¢-82%
The latest on McConnell and the phone calls he’s been making to politicians and pundits. • •
YEScbseveningnews99%match73¢-82%
Senate GOP leaders say they’ve spoken with Mitch McConnell amid growing speculation about his health.
YEScnbc.com99%match73¢-82%
Mitch McConnell's health concerns grow amid 4th week in hospital with few details from aides
YEStheguardian.com99%match63¢-79%
Live: The weeks-long hospitalization of GOP senator Mitch McConnell is rattling his party’s narrow majority today as members awaited word on whether he would return,
NOMS NOW Reporter98%match29¢+200%
New: Thune spoke to McConnell yesterday and Barrasso spoke to him today, according to their offices. • • Thune spox called the conversation "lengthy and substantive." • • Barrasso spox said McConnell "was fully engaged and is eager to get back to the Senate."

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

Related events