When will Iran target Qatar?
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Market pricing makes October 31 the favorite at 3% across 4 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Meeting of the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the media, Monday, September 16, 1405, Question 14: My question is about the news that has been published in the last one or two days regarding the visit of the Qatari delegation to Iran and the talks that were held in Tehran. I wanted to see if you can confirm the truth of this news? And if so, I would be grateful if you could explain the axes of this consultation. Answer to Question 14: Yes. Previously, in the past weeks, as you may recall, we had delegations from Oman and Pakistan. Contacts between Iran and some countries in the region, which have been trying to help reduce tensions for a long time, continue. This is an ongoing process. The Qatari delegation was also present in Iran yesterday, within the same framework of Qatar's previous efforts to help reduce tensions. They also had good meetings with Dr. Araghchi, and as we have previously stated, diplomacy is a dynamic and continuous matter. We will definitely use the tools of diplomacy to protect the national interests of our country in the best possible way. @MFAIran
Al Arabiya reported on Friday evening that missiles launched by Iran were intercepted in northern Jordan. According to the media outlet, images of the interception of Iranian missiles in northern Jordan were published.
Hours before this report, some Telegram channels close to the Revolutionary Guard Corps had announced that missiles had been launched from Isfahan, Kerman and Kermanshah.
@VahidOnLive
The Qatari Foreign Ministry announced in a statement on Friday, September 4, that the country is not a party to the conflict and that an attack on Qatari soil cannot be justified. The ministry added that the success of the Qatari armed forces in intercepting the Islamic Republic's attacks does not reduce the danger of these attacks. The Qatari Foreign Ministry also wrote in the statement that it is "regrettable" that despite the official documentation of the attack on Ras Laffan, the occurrence of this attack is being questioned.
@VahidOnLive @VahidOnline
Al Arabiya reported on Friday evening that missiles launched by Iran were intercepted in northern Jordan. According to the media outlet, images of the interception of Iranian missiles in northern Jordan were published.
Hours before this report, some Telegram channels close to the Revolutionary Guard Corps had announced that missiles had been launched from Isfahan, Kerman and Kermanshah.
@VahidOnLive
The Qatari Foreign Ministry announced in a statement on Friday, September 4, that the country is not a party to the conflict and that an attack on Qatari soil cannot be justified. The ministry added that the success of the Qatari armed forces in intercepting the Islamic Republic's attacks does not reduce the danger of these attacks. The Qatari Foreign Ministry also wrote in the statement that it is "regrettable" that despite the official documentation of the attack on Ras Laffan, the occurrence of this attack is being questioned.
@VahidOnLive @VahidOnline
The Qatari Foreign Ministry said that the success of the Qatari armed forces in intercepting the attacks by Iran does not diminish the danger of these attacks. Qatar is not a party to the conflict and an attack on its territory cannot be justified. The ministry called the denial of the attack on Ras Laffan, despite it being officially documented, regrettable.
The Qatari Foreign Ministry said that the success of the Qatari armed forces in intercepting the attacks by Iran does not diminish the danger of these attacks. Qatar is not a party to the conflict and an attack on its territory cannot be justified. The ministry called the denial of the attack on Ras Laffan, despite it being officially documented, regrettable.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Qatar through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Qatar. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at Qatar if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Qatar, including any internal waters.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and Qatar and a consensus of credible reporting.