When will Iran target Jordan?

ResolvedOutcomes2as of

This hub tracks 2 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

24 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

September 15iranintl92%match100¢
The Jordanian army spokesman announced that the country had been targeted by a missile attack from Iranian soil in the past few hours. He said that Jordanian air defense systems countered 20 ballistic missiles fired towards the country, adding: "18 of these missiles were successfully intercepted and destroyed, and two missiles fell in uninhabited areas." The spokesman emphasized that the Jordanian army countered this threat in accordance with operational procedures to protect the country's airspace and the security of citizens. He noted that monitoring, follow-up and assessment operations are continuing, and based on field assessments, no casualties have been reported following the attack.
September 30iranintl92%match100¢
The Jordanian army spokesman announced that the country had been targeted by a missile attack from Iranian soil in the past few hours. He said that Jordanian air defense systems countered 20 ballistic missiles fired towards the country, adding: "18 of these missiles were successfully intercepted and destroyed, and two missiles fell in uninhabited areas." The spokesman emphasized that the Jordanian army countered this threat in accordance with operational procedures to protect the country's airspace and the security of citizens. He noted that monitoring, follow-up and assessment operations are continuing, and based on field assessments, no casualties have been reported following the attack.
The Revolutionary Guard Corps announced in a statement addressed to the “envoys of the Islamic Republic of Iran” that it had attacked the Jordanian base under the code name “Haider Karrar.” The statement said that the location of the fighter jets was attacked. Earlier, Sky News had reported that missiles had been intercepted in the sky over Jordan. Syrian state television also reported that Syrian air defenses had intercepted some missiles fired from Iran over the border city of Irbid in Jordan. Some media outlets in Iran, including Hamshahri, have also said that the IRGC had attacked Jordan with “cluster missiles.”
The Revolutionary Guard Corps announced in a statement addressed to the “envoys of the Islamic Republic of Iran” that it had attacked the Jordanian base under the code name “Haider Karrar.” The statement said that the location of the fighter jets was attacked. Earlier, Sky News had reported that missiles had been intercepted in the sky over Jordan. Syrian state television also reported that Syrian air defenses had intercepted some missiles fired from Iran over the border city of Irbid in Jordan. Some media outlets in Iran, including Hamshahri, have also said that the IRGC had attacked Jordan with “cluster missiles.”
September 15alarabiya94%match98¢+2%
Al Arabiya correspondent Mohammed Al-Azza: The Jordanian Armed Forces and Royal Air Force are intercepting a missile barrage, possibly the largest ever launched from Iran against Jordan. Missiles have been spotted in the skies over Amman, Irbid, and Ajloun. No statement yet on the number of missiles.
September 30alarabiya93%match99¢+1%
Al Arabiya correspondent Mohammed Al-Azza: The Jordanian Armed Forces and Royal Air Force are intercepting a missile barrage, possibly the largest ever launched from Iran against Jordan. Missiles have been spotted in the skies over Amman, Irbid, and Ajloun. No statement yet on the number of missiles.
September 15farsnews_agency92%match98¢+2%
Attack on Mawqafil-Salti and Prince Hassan air bases in Jordan. It is said that Mawqafil-Salti and Prince Hassan air bases are the targets of Iranian missile attacks. According to reports, Jordan has scrambled air force fighters to intercept Iranian missiles due to the inability of American defense systems.
September 30farsnews_agency91%match99¢+1%
Attack on Mawqafil-Salti and Prince Hassan air bases in Jordan. It is said that Mawqafil-Salti and Prince Hassan air bases are the targets of Iranian missile attacks. According to reports, Jordan has scrambled air force fighters to intercept Iranian missiles due to the inability of American defense systems.
"Iran's missile strikes on the US base in Jordan in the past few days have caused great material and human losses for Americans; the US has sent a message to the parties involved and, after the threat, expressed its deep dissatisfaction with this issue; today, after several Iranian tankers were targeted around Kharg Island, Tehran has once again decided to target the American camp in Jordan with more firepower! My prediction is that "Iran will increase military tension in response to greater economic pressure" - especially before the US elections.
"Iran's missile strikes on the US base in Jordan in the past few days have caused great material and human losses for Americans; the US has sent a message to the parties involved and, after the threat, expressed its deep dissatisfaction with this issue; today, after several Iranian tankers were targeted around Kharg Island, Tehran has once again decided to target the American camp in Jordan with more firepower! My prediction is that "Iran will increase military tension in response to greater economic pressure" - especially before the US elections.
The Iranians recently launched a heavy barrage of missiles into Jordan (the target is apparently the American bases in Jordanian territory). The barrage was clearly visible in Israeli skies in many areas of the country, but there is no Israeli involvement in the interceptions and no missiles crossed into Israeli territory. The Iranian barrage came in response to an American attack earlier today on Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf region.
The Iranians recently launched a heavy barrage of missiles into Jordan (the target is apparently the American bases in Jordanian territory). The barrage was clearly visible in Israeli skies in many areas of the country, but there is no Israeli involvement in the interceptions and no missiles crossed into Israeli territory. The Iranian barrage came in response to an American attack earlier today on Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf region.
Supplement/ Attack on Mawfaq al-Salti and Prince Hassan bases in Jordan It is said that the "Mawfaq al-Salti" air bases in the Al-Azraq region and "Prince Hassan" are the targets of Iran's punitive missile attacks. According to reports, the Jordanian army has flown air force fighters to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles due to the inability of American defense systems. Get the latest news: Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv [in reply to: Arab sources reported that an explosion was heard in Jordan Get the latest news: Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv]
Supplement/ Attack on Mawfaq al-Salti and Prince Hassan bases in Jordan It is said that the "Mawfaq al-Salti" air bases in the Al-Azraq region and "Prince Hassan" are the targets of Iran's punitive missile attacks. According to reports, the Jordanian army has flown air force fighters to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles due to the inability of American defense systems. Get the latest news: Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv [in reply to: Arab sources reported that an explosion was heard in Jordan Get the latest news: Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv]
September 15alarabiya91%match72¢+39%
Al Arabiya correspondent Mohammed Al-Azza: The Jordanian government has not disclosed the number of Iranian missiles that targeted the country or the locations of the interceptions. Jordanian aircraft are scrambling to intercept any flying objects that threaten the country or attempt to cross its airspace.
September 30alarabiya91%match85¢+18%
Al Arabiya correspondent Mohammed Al-Azza: The Jordanian government has not disclosed the number of Iranian missiles that targeted the country or the locations of the interceptions. Jordanian aircraft are scrambling to intercept any flying objects that threaten the country or attempt to cross its airspace.
September 15iranintl92%match82¢+22%
The Ynet website reported that a large explosion occurred in Jordan following the Islamic Republic's missile attacks on the country an hour ago. The Jordanian army had previously announced that it had intercepted a number of missiles launched by Iran. At the same time, Telegram channels close to the Revolutionary Guard Corps reported missile launches from Isfahan, Kerman, and Kermanshah. For more details, contact Iran International's Troske Sadeghi
September 30iranintl92%match86¢+16%
The Ynet website reported that a large explosion occurred in Jordan following the Islamic Republic's missile attacks on the country an hour ago. The Jordanian army had previously announced that it had intercepted a number of missiles launched by Iran. At the same time, Telegram channels close to the Revolutionary Guard Corps reported missile launches from Isfahan, Kerman, and Kermanshah. For more details, contact Iran International's Troske Sadeghi
Al Arabiya reported on Friday evening that missiles launched by Iran were intercepted in northern Jordan. According to the media outlet, images of the interception of Iranian missiles in northern Jordan were published. Hours before this report, some Telegram channels close to the Revolutionary Guard Corps had announced that missiles had been launched from Isfahan, Kerman and Kermanshah. @VahidOnLive The Qatari Foreign Ministry announced in a statement on Friday, September 4, that the country is not a party to the conflict and that an attack on Qatari soil cannot be justified. The ministry added that the success of the Qatari armed forces in intercepting the Islamic Republic's attacks does not reduce the danger of these attacks. The Qatari Foreign Ministry also wrote in the statement that it is "regrettable" that despite the official documentation of the attack on Ras Laffan, the occurrence of this attack is being questioned. @VahidOnLive @VahidOnline
Al Arabiya reported on Friday evening that missiles launched by Iran were intercepted in northern Jordan. According to the media outlet, images of the interception of Iranian missiles in northern Jordan were published. Hours before this report, some Telegram channels close to the Revolutionary Guard Corps had announced that missiles had been launched from Isfahan, Kerman and Kermanshah. @VahidOnLive The Qatari Foreign Ministry announced in a statement on Friday, September 4, that the country is not a party to the conflict and that an attack on Qatari soil cannot be justified. The ministry added that the success of the Qatari armed forces in intercepting the Islamic Republic's attacks does not reduce the danger of these attacks. The Qatari Foreign Ministry also wrote in the statement that it is "regrettable" that despite the official documentation of the attack on Ras Laffan, the occurrence of this attack is being questioned. @VahidOnLive @VahidOnline
September 15iranintl92%match88¢+14%
Al-Arabiya reported on Friday evening that missiles launched by Iran were intercepted in northern Jordan. According to the media outlet, images of the interception of Iranian missiles in northern Jordan were published. Hours before this report, some Telegram channels close to the Revolutionary Guard Corps had announced that missiles had been launched from Isfahan, Kerman, and Kermanshah.
September 30iranintl92%match84¢+19%
Al-Arabiya reported on Friday evening that missiles launched by Iran were intercepted in northern Jordan. According to the media outlet, images of the interception of Iranian missiles in northern Jordan were published. Hours before this report, some Telegram channels close to the Revolutionary Guard Corps had announced that missiles had been launched from Isfahan, Kerman, and Kermanshah.
September 15Walla Reporter92%match87¢+15%
#BREAKING Iran targets Jordan with missiles, according to repors
#BREAKING Iran targets Jordan with missiles, according to repors

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Jordan through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Amman time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Jordan. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Jordan if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Jordan, including any internal waters. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Amman time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and Jordan and a consensus of credible reporting.