When will Hezbollah disarm?
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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 8% across 3 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Hezbollah's disarmament plan enters critical phase; Lebanese army moves deeper into Hezbollah's areas of influence The Lebanese government insists on implementing the second phase of Hezbollah's disarmament plan; a critical phase that remains undecided due to Beirut and Tel Aviv's disagreement over its geographical scope and Hezbollah's opposition, and could determine the fate of the plan's continuation. @ilnair
Menshe Amir, an expert on Middle East affairs, told Iran International that Hezbollah’s opposition to disarmament and the Islamic Republic’s support for the group are one of the main obstacles to progress in negotiations between Israel and Lebanon. According to him, as long as Hezbollah does not disarm and attacks against Israel from Lebanese soil continue, it will be difficult to reach an agreement between the two sides.
Parliamentary sources in Hezbollah told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed: The weapons issue is a Lebanese matter to be resolved by Lebanese, and we will not accept a return to the pre-March 2nd situation.
Lebanon: The Islamic Resistance - Hezbollah: We targeted an enemy army D9 bulldozer with a swoop-down missile at Khallat al-Raj in the town of Deir Siryan.
Lebanon: The Islamic Resistance - Hezbollah: We targeted an enemy army "Nimra" vehicle with a guided missile in the Wadi al-Uyun area and achieved a direct hit.
Study: Nearly Half of Lebanese Oppose Hezbollah Disarmament • • A King’s College London survey of 2,000+ Lebanese citizens found that while only 18% express political support for Hezbollah, 45% oppose its disarmament — and the driving factor is not sectarian loyalty or dependence on Hezbollah’s services, but deep moral grievances against the Lebanese state itself. • • Those grievances center on three things: the perception that the government distributes resources through political favoritism rather than fairness; the absence of accountability — most visibly the obstructed investigation into the 2020 Beirut port explosion; and pervasive corruption, including elites shielding assets while ordinary people lost their savings in the banking collapse. Fewer than one in four Lebanese said they trust the government. • • Citizens who felt most wronged by the state were 29 percentage points more likely to oppose disarmament — the single strongest predictor, outweighing security fears about Israel as a factor. • • The authors argue that U.S. and Israeli policy — premised on sanctions, military pressure, and funding alternative service providers to substitute for Hezbollah — is targeting the wrong motive. What would move the needle, they argue, is rebuilding Lebanese state legitimacy: delivering services fairly, pursuing accountability. A state “worth disarming for” is one that has earned enough trust that citizens would accept its monopoly on force. • • Importantly, the authors note that repeated Israeli strikes destroying Lebanon’s schools, hospitals, and local institutions make that goal harder to reach — reinforcing the grievances that sustain support for Hezbollah keeping its weapons. • • Details
Journalist Sanaa al-Jak: Lebanon will not move to the second phase of disarming Hezbollah before Israeli attacks in the south cease.
Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir in a closed-door briefing before the Foreign Affairs and Security Committee: The Israeli army has not set a goal of disarming Hezbollah. Among our specific objectives is to penetrate and create the conditions that will enable the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah. #AlMayadeen
Israeli Chief of Staff: No objective has been set for the army to disarm Hezbollah.
Political writer Rozana Bou Monsef: Lebanon cannot disarm Hezbollah alone without international support for the army.
Hezbollah intensifies attacks against Israeli forces in Lebanon The Islamic Resistance #Hezbollah has increased its attacks against the Israeli army. These operations are in response to ceasefire violations and attacks on civilian villages in southern Lebanon.
New information: US insistence on Lebanon's commitment to disarming Hezbollah and extending legitimate authority to all Lebanese regions. @daou_rimane
Carney: I informed the Lebanese president of our full support for efforts to disarm Hezbollah.
US Secretary of State: Peace between Lebanon and Israel hinges on disarming the militias.
US State Department: Comprehensive peace is contingent upon the full restoration of Lebanese state authority and the complete disarmament of Hezbollah.
The US State Department: Comprehensive peace is contingent upon the full restoration of Lebanese state authority and the complete disarmament of Hezbollah.
#Breaking | US State Department: Comprehensive peace is contingent upon the full restoration of Lebanese state authority and the complete disarmament of Hezbollah
Live: Hezbollah fires rockets into Israel
Lebanon: The Islamic Resistance - Hezbollah: We targeted a Merkava tank with a guided missile near the river on the outskirts of the town of Deir Siryan and achieved a confirmed hit.
The Lebanese Hezbollah says it targeted an Israeli army post in the town of Bayyada in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah announced 17 operations against the Israeli army Lebanon's Hezbollah announced in a statement that it carried out 17 operations against the positions and movements of the Israeli army in southern Lebanon on Wednesday in response to the Israeli regime's ceasefire violations and attacks. Mean on social networks @mizanplus
Hezbollah announced 17 operations against the Israeli army Lebanon's Hezbollah announced in a statement that it carried out 17 operations against the positions and movements of the Israeli army in southern Lebanon on Wednesday in response to the Israeli regime's ceasefire violations and attacks. Get the latest news: Site | Ita | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
Hezbollah announced 17 operations against the Israeli army Lebanon's Hezbollah announced in a statement that it carried out 17 operations against the positions and movements of the Israeli army in southern Lebanon on Wednesday in response to the Israeli regime's ceasefire violations and attacks. @iribnews
US Secretary of State: We hope that the Lebanese army and the Lebanese government will confront Hezbollah and disarm it.
A US official told Al Arabiya English: Hezbollah is still obstructing negotiations between Lebanon and Israel.
Revolutionary Guard vows to support Hezbollah in Lebanon fighting
The disarmament of the party is conditional on two points! (Al-Modon) | For details
Hezbollah continues to transfer weapons and fighters from across the Syrian border into Lebanon, amid largely successful efforts by Syrian government forces to control the border with Lebanon, according to Saudi Al-Majalla.
No regional, international power can force Hezbollah to disarm: Top official • •
Live: Hezbollah downs IDF drone in southern Lebanon
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.