Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Musk and Altman face off in court: Who is the one who betrays their promise and who is the one who can't accept defeat?
Sam Altman tries to fend off Elon Musk’s attacks on OpenAI in court battle
Elon Musk has taken the stand in the second day of the trial against OpenAI. Will Sam Altman testify against Musk?
Elon Musk and Sam Altman, two of the world’s biggest tech figures, are facing off in a California courtroom this week in a case with major stakes for artificial intelligence.
Sam Altman stole a charity, Elon Musk says as OpenAI trial begins
Managing Director of This Is Dubai Michael Jabri-Pickett discusses who could win the Elon Musk and Sam Altman court battle over AI. • • #ElonMusk #SamAltman #AI
Musk is asked to point out where Sam Altman is in court, he can't seem to find him ...?
Opening arguments begin in Elon Musk and Sam Altman courtroom showdown
Trial Begins Between Elon Musk and Sam Altman for the Future of OpenAI -- WSJ
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.